Ukraine and Iran, two nations at war with nuclear powers, tiptoed dangerously close to conflict with each other in recent days, when Ukraine struck an Iranian commercial cargo ship in the Caspian Sea.
The attack killed an Iranian civilian sailor. Ukraine said the ship was transporting military equipment to Russia. Iran considered retaliating, but diplomats defused the crisis through a phone call.
For analysts observing the two wars closely, it was only a matter of time before violence escalated between Ukraine and Iran. The questions now confronting governments around the globe are whether the wars are converging, and when the next flashpoint might be.
If the conflicts merge more directly, the result could be cataclysmic, with multiple nations, including the United States and Russia, taking part in open warfare spanning Eurasia and the Middle East.
Both wars have already drawn in myriad countries. With American and European support, Ukraine has been defending itself against a full-scale invasion by Russia since 2022, while Iran and North Korea have sent weapons and even troops to assist the army of President Vladimir V. Putin.
In February, Iran was plunged into a full-scale war, too, when the United States and Israel attacked. By one count, at least 17 nations — including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq — have been involved.
“In reality, the two conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have been intertwined from the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” said Alina Polyakova, the president of the Center for European Policy Analysis, a research group in Washington that advocates strong U.S. support for Ukraine.
Russia and Iran have a long partnership, and both have been on the same side of recent wars, including the civil war in Syria. So it was perhaps unsurprising that Iran gave weapons aid to Russia soon after Mr. Putin’s military invaded Ukraine.
Iran sent drones and drone trainers to work with the Russian military in Crimea, the peninsula that Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014. The symbiosis is evident in the full-circle nature of that partnership: Russia improved the Iranian drones, began mass-producing them and is now sending the new versions to Iran to use against the United States and Israel.
The U.S. government has also said Iran provided ballistic missiles to Russia.
In the war in the Middle East, Russia has provided Iran with intelligence collected by satellites on U.S. military assets in the region. U.S. officials say recent Iranian attacks on American troops and military sites have been more accurate and deadlier. A strike late this month killed three U.S. service members in Jordan.
When asked by a reporter last week whether Russia and China were giving targeting information to Iran, Secretary of State Marco Rubio avoided answering, except to say that nothing China had done “has in any way changed the trajectory” of the war. He did not mention Russia.
William B. Taylor, a U.S. ambassador to Ukraine in the Bush and Obama administrations and the head of the embassy in Kyiv during the first Trump administration, said the wars “overlap but have not merged.”
“Ukraine is singularly focused on defeating the Russian invasion — an existential threat to the nation — by any and all means possible,” he said. That includes using military means to cut off support other nations are providing Russia.
“Ukraine is not seeking conflict with Iran but is bound to act to cut support to Russia from wherever it originates,” Mr. Taylor said.
It was unclear whether another such attack could occur again.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington, Olha Stefanishyna, said at a briefing on Thursday organized by The Christian Science Monitor that it is not the government’s policy to try to connect the two wars. The recent attack on the Iranian ship, she said, had been “unintentional.”
Drone and counterdrone innovation has been central to the war in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in March that he was sending more than 200 military experts to the Middle East to help countries there defend themselves against Iranian drones.
Mr. Zelensky has tried to make the case that the two wars have some common elements. On Saturday, he said Ukraine was ready to share intelligence with Western allies that showed Russia was providing Iran with satellite information on Gulf Arab nations and U.S. military bases in the region.
Soon after the war in Ukraine began, Mr. Zelensky sought aid from Israel. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has maintained a neutral stance on the war, taking care not to jeopardize his relationship with Mr. Putin. Last year, the Israelis sent a refurbished Patriot air defense missile system to Ukraine, but only after the Biden administration secured a pledge from Israel.
Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Netanyahu shook hands and spoke on Tuesday at the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham in Washington. It was the first time they had met in person in nearly three years. Both went to the White House for separate talks with President Trump.
Some analysts who have been critical of American wars, including the one in Iran, have warned that the Trump administration needs to be wary of how both Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Netanyahu might seek to deepen American involvement in the conflicts.
“Trump should be on guard as Zelensky and Netanyahu arrive, hats in hands, to Washington,” Andrew Day, a senior editor for The American Conservative, wrote this week. “Both will push for greater U.S. military assistance, and both will frame their demands as serving American interests.”
Trita Parsi, the co-founder of the Quincy Institute, which is critical of American foreign policy that relies on military aggression, wrote that Mr. Zelensky could achieve a “strategic breakthrough” with the “dangerous gambit” of trying to persuade Washington that the two wars are intertwined.
However, other analysts say the United States should strengthen its commitments to Ukraine and Israel in order to stand more firmly against a loose anti-American coalition that they argue includes Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
That line of thought spans the political spectrum in Washington and is rooted in traditional foreign policy, but gained momentum late in the Biden administration.
The most powerful variable in the backdrops of the conflicts is China, the only country capable of challenging American global supremacy.
Ms. Polyakova, the advocate of U.S. support for the Ukrainian military, said that “behind much of this is, of course, China, which has been the key enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine.” China is also the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, and U.S. officials say Chinese companies have been planning to send shoulder-fired missiles known as MANPADS to Iran.
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