For years, US technology giants had a tacit agreement with investors: The companies could spend lavishly on artificial intelligence, and the stock market would reward them long as their revenues were rising. That deal is suddenly breaking down.
Alphabet Inc. shares plunged more than 7% on Thursday, their worst day in over a year after the company raised its capital expenditures in 2026 to as much as $205 billion and reported that free cash flow turned negative in the second quarter for the first time since its 2004 initial public offering.
Nevermind that Google’s parent also delivered a whopping 82% increase in cloud-computing revenue, far surpassing Wall Street estimates. Investors were worried about all the spending.
“People are really focused on capex, obsessed with it. It used to be the more the better, but now it is the less the better,” said Jason Lemire, chief investment officer at Bold Wealth Partners. “We’re seeing capital raises, negative cash flows, rising debt. All that adds risk to the picture.”
The selloff shows how much the narrative around AI and the Magnificent Seven tech behemoths has shifted. Suddenly it’s become difficult to please investors as capex rises. That Alphabet got hit is particularly notable because it’s seen as the biggest AI winner among the group because of the popularity of its Gemini AI services, homegrown data center chips and booming cloud-computing business.
This change makes for a tough setup heading into next week, with earnings from Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms due on Wednesday, followed by Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday.
An index tracking the Mag Seven, which also includes Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc., tumbled 4.8% on Thursday following the Alphabet report, its worst day since the Trump tariff “liberation day” announcement in April 2025. It’s down 3.7% in 2026 after soaring for the last three years. As a result, the companies that have been dominating the S&P 500 Index since the AI boom began are increasingly ceding leadership to the recipients of the hundreds of billions of dollars they’re spending, like chipmakers Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
Read More: Magnificent Seven Lose $797 Billion as AI Skeptics Dump Tech Stocks
Microsoft, once considered an AI leader thanks to its stake in ChatGPT owner OpenAI, is the second-weakest stock in the Mag Seven this year, plunging 21% on concerns that it’s falling behind despite spending more than $190 billion on capex in the current calendar year, according to analysts’ estimates. Meta shares have dropped 9.8% as investors question its own AI investments, while Amazon is basically flat for 2026.
Together, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are projected to pump about $724 billion into capital spending this year and nearly $950 billion in 2027, according to the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
“We’re in a period where people are inclined to sell off on capex, and Microsoft and Meta and Amazon are all holdings hands with Alphabet and jumping in to spend,” said Willy Lee, principal at venture firm Neostellar Capital. “We’re going to see scrutiny on all parts of their businesses as they keep spending.”
The investor revolt is also bringing urgency to questions surrounding the beneficiaries of all this spending, specifically chipmakers. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, or SOX, was up 101% through the first half of the year but has lost 17% in July and is on pace for its worst month since June 2022, which was in the midst of the stock market’s inflation selloff.
The level of uncertainty can be seen in the 30-member chip index’s recent wild swings, with volatility over the past 100 days at the highest since 2020 when the pandemic was roiling the stock market. The SOX has had 17 moves of 5% or more this year, matching the most since 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. By contrast, the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index have had none.
“There is going to be an AI winter at some point,” Bold Wealth’s Lemire said. “When you look at how exceptional margins are — especially in memory — well, it is impossible to maintain those over a long timeframe. At some point, we will see margin compression and valuation compression, and that will have a huge impact on the market.”
On the flipside of that trade is Apple. The iPhone maker has avoided big AI outlays, opting instead to partner with model developers to power its services. Investors have rewarded that strategy in recent weeks, sending the shares up 15% in July and putting them on pace for their best month in exactly three years. The stock has gained 23% in 2026, making it the biggest points contributor to the S&P 500’s 8.3% rise.
This is not say that Apple is free of problems. Soaring demand for memory chips used in AI computing have driven Apple to raise prices on products like MacBooks and iPads. How that lands with its customers and what it will mean for its profit margins remains an open question.
Of course, the Mag Seven’s selloff has made some of the shares relatively cheap. Microsoft, for example, is priced at 19 times estimated profits, a significant discount to its average of 27 over the past decade. Meta is priced at around 14 times compared with its 10-year average of 20.
The problem is that the rush to invest in AI computing capacity is changing the companies’ business models and introducing new risks. Alphabet’s cash flow turning negative in the second quarter was eye opening to investors considering how much money it brings in from its various businesses.
All of which has made historical valuations less relevant, according to Brad Warden, senior portfolio manager at Nomura Asset Management, whose fund holds Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon.
“They look cheap right now, but when you look forward at potential disruption, they are guilty until proven innocent. Is the current business model sustainable? Will economics get worse?” said Warden, who expects the AI spenders to see returns from their investments. “It really comes down to what pain you’re willing to endure in an investment cycle and how strongly you believe you’ll ultimately get the economics on the other end of the cycle.”
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