Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Plans

The Trump administration just announced that it will help Saudi Arabia develop a civilian nuclear program. That’s a big deal for the region. And the U.S. is willing to drop some key safeguards of previous nuclear agreements — which is also a big deal.

My first thought: This won’t make it any easier to persuade Iran to agree to strict rules on enrichment. My second thought: Israel won’t be happy.

My third thought: I need to call David Sanger, our veteran White House correspondent and in-house nuclear expert. I wanted to ask him about what this development means for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and beyond. You can read our conversation below.

Understanding the Saudi-U.S. nuclear deal

So, David. Since when have the Saudis wanted nuclear power? Is this new?

They’ve wanted it for years. These talks actually started in President Trump’s first term. They continued under President Biden, when the idea was to allow the Saudis to build reactors as part of a broader discussion that involved diplomatic recognition of Israel. What Trump has done is divorce the nuclear agreement from the broader question of recognizing Israel — which the Saudis have made clear will not be on the table for a long time.

Why this major concession? What’s in it for the United States?

First of all, it’s a huge business deal for the U.S. because the agreement requires that the Saudis use American-sourced nuclear technology. But it’s also another way to strengthen the close alliance with the Saudis. The comparison here is a similar deal the U.S. signed with the United Arab Emirates in 2009. But that’s where the rub lies — because there were two important provisions in that agreement that are absent from the Saudi agreement.

What provisions?

The first required the U.A.E. to give the International Atomic Energy Agency broad rights to inspect nuclear facilities on short notice anywhere in the country. The Saudis have refused to agree to that.

The second big restriction the Emiratis agreed to is that they would not enrich uranium, or reprocess plutonium — in other words, they would make none of their own nuclear fuel — so that there was no fear that they would divert fuel to a bomb project. In the Saudi agreement, there is no such commitment, only an agreement that the U.S. and the Saudis will study whether enrichment makes economic sense for Saudi Arabia.

Let’s talk about proliferation. What’s the risk that the Saudis develop nuclear weapons on the back of this? That was always the argument against Iranian enrichment.

If, in fact, the Saudis end up buying their fuel from abroad, and handing back the nuclear waste that comes out at the back end, then there is not much risk. But the way this is written, the Saudis are not committed to that path. And nonproliferation experts say that creates a risk of diversion to a bomb project.

Is this Saudi deal going to make it harder for the U.S. to negotiate a peace deal with Iran, given that the nuclear question is pretty central to that?

You can certainly argue that the U.S. has gone to war with Iran, in part to force them to accept highly intrusive nuclear inspections and to get them to cease producing uranium. And that the Iranians will look at this and say, Trump just gave Saudi Arabia a pass on their inspections and may even allow them to produce nuclear fuel. They would argue — and would have a reasonable case — that this shows there are double standards.

Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, has said he would build nuclear weapons if Iran does. Does this deal put us on a path to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East?

The risk here is that now that Saudi Arabia has a special deal, the U.A.E. then turns around and says, “Hey, what about us? We signed up for more restrictive requirements, we want their terms.” And then you set a standard for everybody in the region that’s a lot lower than the one that was created in 2009.

You have covered this issue for decades. A reliable American umbrella kept a lot of U.S. allies from seeking nuclear weapons. But under Trump, that umbrella has become less reliable. What’s your personal sense of the kind of moment we’re in, David?

Frankly, we are on the cusp of nuclear breakout around the world. One of the miracles of the post-World War II era is that we only have nine nuclear weapon states right now. J.F.K. suggested before his assassination that he thought we might end up with two dozen of them, in a short number of years. He was wrong then. But he might be right soon.

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