The governor of Texas said he had put emergency responders on standby this week as experts with the National Weather Service warned that parts of the state, including Waco, Austin and San Antonio, faced a higher than usual risk of dangerous flash flooding.
Rural areas near the Rio Grande have already recorded one to two inches of rain over the past day, and meteorologists warned that some places in the Texas Hill Country and Big Bend regions could receive up to 10 inches by Thursday as, one after another, rounds of storms move across the state. There was still uncertainty among meteorologists over where, exactly, the heaviest rain would fall.
In a forecast on Monday afternoon, meteorologists at the Weather Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service that monitors for excessive rainfall, wrote that their newest models painted a “bleak picture for flooding potential,” especially from San Antonio west to the Rio Grande.
Flood watches blanketed a third of the state on Monday, and many will remain in effect through Thursday. More urgent flash flood warnings, a signal that flooding is imminent or has already begun, dotted the landscape on Monday, a routine that forecasters said was likely to continue through the week as the rain fell.
Gov. Greg Abbott said emergency services across the state, including the National Guard and its Black Hawk helicopters, were poised to respond to the potentially treacherous conditions.
Heavy rain and flash flooding are not uncommon in Texas in mid-July. It was just over a year ago that a weekend of devastating flooding killed more than 130 people in Central Texas, including 25 young campers along the Guadalupe River in the Hill Country.
This week, the Hill Country is once again at risk for extreme rainfall that could lead to a rapid rise in rivers in the hilly terrain. Forecasters have confidence that excessive rain is likely to fall in Del Rio, Uvalde and Kerrville. By Thursday, the compounding effects of multiple storms have forecasters increasing the risk of flooding in San Antonio.
The experts with the Weather Prediction Center also wrote that this weather pattern could produce “surprises,” because the atmosphere is very moist all the way into Louisiana.
By Thursday, forecasters said, the chance of flooding should begin to diminish across the state, leading to a dry weekend.
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