Lindsey Graham’s sudden death has left his congressional seat vacant, potentially complicating the Republican legislative agenda.
Graham, who died on Saturday at age 71, served as U.S. Senator for South Carolina for 23 years. He was campaigning for a fifth term this year, after winning the Republican primary in June with 57% of the vote.
Graham was a critic-turned-staunch ally of Donald Trump and backed the President’s war with Iran. His death leaves Republicans with a smaller Senate majority, which could hamper the party’s voting strength with Kentucky Republican Senator Mitch McConnell already absent from the chamber due to hospitalization.
The vacancy could also be significant for Democrats’ prospects in the mid-term elections this November.
Republicans will need to choose a new Senate nominee to take on Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician whose campaign has focused on healthcare, abortion rights, and gun safety. Before Graham’s death, the state was not considered a battleground. The last time a Democrat was elected to the Senate in South Carolina was in 1998. But Graham’s death adds uncertainty to the race.
How Graham’s seat will be filled
Under South Carolina law, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster can appoint a temporary replacement to serve the remainder of Graham’s term, which ends Jan. 3. Like Graham, McMaster is a close ally of Trump.
On Sunday, Trump said he had someone in mind that “would be great” to fill Graham’s seat, but that it is “too soon” to publicly name them.
McMaster could fill the seat himself, but he would first have to resign from the governorship. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette would then serve as governor for the remainder of McMaster’s term, which ends on Jan. 13, and she could appoint McMaster to the Senate seat. But doing so has historically been a losing game in the long run. In 1965, South Carolina Gov. Donald Russell resigned after Sen. Olin Johnston died, allowing Lt. Gov Robert McNair to appoint him to the Senate. Russell then lost the 1966 Democratic primary to Fritz Hollings.
Evette could also be considered for the seat. She has not publicly commented on whether she is interested. Trump endorsed her when she unsuccessfully ran in the state Republican gubernatorial primary in June. The nomination was ultimately won by Alan Wilson, the son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R, S.C.), whom Trump also endorsed.
Graham’s vacancy also triggers a special primary election to take his spot on the ballot to compete for the next U.S. Senate term, according to state election law. That special election will take place on Aug. 11. Candidates will have a week beginning July 21 to declare their intent to run.
Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, who also ran against Wilson, could be contenders. Mace told CNN that she does not plan to fill the seat in the interim, but she said “there will be time to decide” about running for it in the special election. Norman is expected to announce whether he will run on Tuesday, and he said that he has spoken with Trump about an endorsement, according to Bloomberg Government.
The five Republicans that challenged Graham in the June primary could also enter the special election. Greenville businessman Mark Lynch, who criticized Graham’s interventionist foreign policy approach and support for foreign aid, came second with 29% of the vote. Motivational speaker Thomas Dismukes, Horry County Republican Party executive committeeman and businessman Pat Herrmann, Duncan city councilmember Calvin Cowen, and Columbia-based “Hip-Hop Republican” Darius Mitchell also ran.
Joe Wilson said he has no plans to replace Graham. He posted on X that he “assured President Trump I intend to remain in the House for his agenda.”
What the vacancy means for the GOP’s agenda
The vacancy could complicate efforts to pass the remaining items on the GOP’s legislative agenda. Republicans held a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but after Graham’s death and amid McConnell’s hospitalization, Republicans have just 51 voting senators, narrowing their margin at a time when some Republicans have bucked party leadership on issues like the war with Iran.
Graham has been described by both Republicans and Democrats as capable of working across the aisle to broker bipartisan deals. His relationship with Trump also made him an influential intermediary with the President, including in efforts to secure aid for Ukraine. Graham has consistently lobbied for providing aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia, despite Trump’s repeated efforts to scale back U.S. support for the ally. On Friday, Graham announced that a bipartisan group of Senators had reached an agreement with the White House on an updated sanctions package targeting Russia.
In turn, Graham played a key role in shepherding some of Trump’s key legislative goals through the Senate, including the passage of the President’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act.
Several major bills remain on the legislative agenda.
These include Trump’s SAVE America Act, which would require voter ID and proof of citizenship to vote. Graham strongly advocated for the bill, which has faced strong opposition from Democrats and some Republicans. Trump told NBC on Sunday that Graham’s death will be “a big blow” to the act.
Republicans were also hoping to pass a reconciliation bill, which would be the third this legislative session after the OBBBA and another bill to fund immigration enforcement agencies. The package was expected to include funding to replenish U.S. weapons stockpiles depleted by the war with Iran. As Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Graham would have been instrumental in crafting the package.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, whom Trump nominated to replace Pam Bondi as AG, is also waiting to be confirmed by the Senate Judiciary Committee, which Graham served on. With all 10 Democrats on the committee opposed, Republicans can afford no defections. If any of the remaining 11 Republicans crosses party lines then Blanche’s nomination would fail to advance out of committee.
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