The continued cycle of attacks between Iran and the United States in the Persian Gulf posed fresh risks to ships seeking to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, testing markets on Sunday.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, opened about 3.5 percent higher on Sunday, to nearly $79 a barrel. That is up nearly 9 percent from its prewar price.
Daily ship traffic through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil, recently dropped to the lowest level in weeks, with the latest data showing only 22 ships braving the passage on Thursday, according to Kpler, a maritime data firm. More than 130 vessels passed through daily before the war.
In the latest round of attacks over the weekend, the U.S. military said it had hit about 140 targets in Iran after Tehran attacked a container ship in the strait. Iran’s military said it had responded by firing at U.S. targets in the region.
Amena Bakr, head of Middle East research at Kpler, said any assurance that commercial vessels had gained with the ability to pass through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few weeks is gone.
“That confidence eroded very, very quickly,” Ms. Bakr said. “We’re back to square one when it comes to that situation.”
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, closed last week near $76 per barrel, about 5 percent higher than prewar levels. Although oil prices are far below the peak of nearly $120 a barrel during the worst of the war, the market moves that follow each round of strikes have shown Iran’s capacity to move energy prices.
A recovery in shipping traffic after the United States and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement last month had led to a “sharp” increase in global oil supplies, the International Energy Agency said in a report released on Friday. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf jumped by 6.5 million barrels per day in June, to around 16 million barrels per day, helping to bring down prices.
Still, last month’s export pace was only about two-thirds of prewar levels. A more comprehensive recovery is “contingent on a swift de-escalation of renewed hostilities,” the I.E.A. said.
If ships become more wary of plying the strait after recent attacks, the talk among economists may turn from forecasts of an impending oil glut to worries about “demand destruction” as high energy prices squeeze businesses and consumers. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States remains 30 percent higher than before the war. It has risen slightly in the past week to $3.88 a gallon on Sunday, from $3.80 a gallon a week earlier, according to the AAA motor club.
Ms. Bakr said the oil markets appear to have grown accustomed to volatility and on-again, off-again hostilities between the United States and Iran. She said oil prices are more likely to fall at any hint of renewed negotiations toward peace than they are to surge with new strikes.
“The market has adjusted to this new normal,” Ms. Bakr said, adding, “The movement of prices hasn’t really reflected the reality of the situation or the level of geopolitical risk.”
Iran insists that its waters are the only viable route through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels. Ships instead taking a route close to Oman’s coastline, guided and protected by the U.S. military, have drawn Tehran’s wrath. The vessel attacked this weekend was in Omani waters, as were the ships hit last week, setting off the latest cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation.
The middle of the strait, where ships traveled before the war, is considered dangerous because of the risk of mines laid by Iran’s military.
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