It may be only a matter of time before Graham Platner drops out of the Maine Senate race.
If he does, it’s too soon to say who might replace him, but it’s not too early to suggest that his replacement would probably be a modest favorite against Susan Collins, the longtime Republican incumbent. The same couldn’t be said for Mr. Platner, even before he faced a rape accusation on Monday.
If the race does get a reset, it will be an enormous break for Democrats. Without a victory in Maine, their path to control of the Senate is extremely challenging — not just in 2026, but potentially even if they secure the tiebreaking vice presidency in 2028. It would be an exaggeration to say Mr. Platner was doomed before the latest allegation, but his candidacy was already in a lot of trouble.
To take one example from last week’s New York Times/Siena poll of Maine: Thirty percent of Mr. Platner’s own supporters said his various controversies were making them question whether they could support him. Although he led Ms. Collins in the poll by two percentage points, it was an open question whether he would be able to withstand another round of controversy — and another round seemed all but inevitable. The extraordinary speed with which Mr. Platner’s loyalists pushed him to withdraw after the allegation Monday is partly a reflection of how badly he was wounded. He was already near the breaking point.
Mr. Platner has denied the rape allegation but said he is “taking the time to reflect on the best path forward” for his candidacy.
If he drops out by next Monday, the Maine Democratic Party will get to choose his replacement. It would have until July 27 to select a new nominee, and my colleague Reid Epstein reports that Maine Democrats are considering several means of doing so, from a pop-up convention to a statewide caucus. Most of the likeliest Democratic replacements aren’t especially well known statewide or nationally, but in this political environment Ms. Collins would be in jeopardy against any one of them.
On paper, this is a race Democrats should win. Yes, Ms. Collins has won many times before, despite Maine’s Democratic lean, but that does not mean she should be expected to defy political gravity forever.
Over the last decade, all of the great electoral over-performers have watched the nation’s polarizing politics gradually pull their standing back to earth, and drag congressional election results into closer alignment with presidential results. This is even true for Ms. Collins: Her nine-point victory in 2020, while impressive, was her smallest re-election margin. There’s every indication that her support has continued to erode over the last six years. A majority of likely voters said they had an unfavorable view of her in the latest Times/Siena poll. That would not usually be enough for a Republican to win a Democratic-leaning state.
And a midterm election ought to make it especially challenging for Ms. Collins to hold on. Historically, midterms tend to be a referendum on the party in power, and Maine likely voters said they preferred Democratic to Republican control of the Senate by 12 points in the last Times/Siena poll. Of course, Ms. Collins was still quite competitive against Mr. Platner, but that was at least partly because of Mr. Platner’s weaknesses. After all, a majority of voters said they also had an unfavorable view of Mr. Platner, even before the latest allegation.
And while Ms. Collins may no longer be a political juggernaut, she was very well suited to capitalize on the liabilities of a candidate like Mr. Platner. She was not loved, but she was broadly acceptable, according to our polling: She was viewed as moderate, moral, experienced and effective by clear majorities of voters. She may have been a particularly good fit for women and especially older women, who may have been repelled by Mr. Platner’s conduct. Women 65 and over backed Ms. Collins by three points in the Times/Siena poll, even though those same respondents, when asked how they voted in 2024, collectively backed Kamala Harris by 28 points.
In contrast, Mr. Platner’s distinctive political profile as a working-class, progressive populist didn’t leave such an obvious mark on the race. He failed to make good on his promise to appeal to blue-collar voters: White voters without a college degree backed Ms. Collins, 59-36, in the Times/Siena poll. Only 35 percent of them said they had a favorable view of Mr. Platner, and two-thirds said he would oppose President Trump “too much.”
The poll didn’t contain much indication that Mr. Platner’s problem was ideological. In fact, a slightly greater share of Maine likely voters — 47 percent — said the Democratic Party was “too far to the left” compared with the 45 percent who said Mr. Platner was “too far to the left.” This may be surprising, as he was the anti-establishment progressive in the primary, but his views are basically consistent with the ideological center of the Democratic Party nowadays: economically populist, opposed to aiding Israel, but not a self-identified democratic socialist.
Of course, it’s possible that Democrats would still be better off with a more moderate candidate, perhaps especially against Ms. Collins (who is competitive in large part because she’s a moderate among Republicans). It’s just hard to say that Mr. Platner’s views were the obstacle to his success, given that Maine usually votes for Democrats. With a different candidate, the race might be likelier to be about Ms. Collins’s support for Mr. Trump than a test of character. If so, Maine would seem to have a much better chance of voting Democratic again.
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