Last month, I attended the Latino Vote Summit in Washington — a meeting of academics, pollsters and journalists analyzing the Hispanic electorate with an eye on the upcoming midterm elections and beyond to 2028.
In 2024, President Donald Trump won 48 percent of Latino voters, a result that surprised many insiders. The portrait of that same electorate that emerged during the meeting offered many hints for how Democrats will need to approach the coming contests. The opportunity is clear. But will the party seize it?
Last cycle, pollster Carlos Odio said, a significant share of Hispanic voters from different backgrounds moved into the Republican column because they trusted that Trump would restore a path toward economic prosperity. Many of those Trump voters — men and evangelicals, but also women and Catholics — notably also supported punitive immigration measures focused on criminals and the hardening of border security. They blamed the Biden administration for the favorable conditions granted to millions of asylum seekers, which was seen as an affront to a community that had abided by the rules — and achieved economic success.
Nearly two years later, Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters has fallen faster and more sharply than among almost any other group in his coalition — a 27-point drop since his inauguration. Skepticism is pervasive. According to pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, 69 percent of Hispanics say that Trump’s presidency has produced no change or has led to negative changes for the country.
Hispanics also express growing alarm about the economy: Fifty-three percent identify the cost of living as their main concern, Odio said.
The ferocity of Trump’s immigration policies has also cost him support. In a recent UnidosUS survey, immigration enforcement appears as the second issue of greatest concern to Hispanic voters, behind the cost of living. These voters thought Trump would focus on arresting criminals, not on organizing mass raids or adopting opaque measures that harass hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants.
Odio revealed one more issue: In his analysis, the Hispanic electorate overwhelmingly disapproves of Trump’s foreign policy adventurism. Seventy-four percent of Hispanic respondents told his polling firm that the United States should focus those resources on domestic challenges before spending “so much money” on military aid to other countries.
All of this opens a clear window of opportunity for the Democrats. According to the numbers presented by Odio, Latinos represent at least 10 percent of the electorate in 20 of the 36 most competitive races in November’s midterm election.
Can Democrats win back the Hispanic voters they’ve lost? Chuck Rocha, one of the event’s organizers, who led Sen. Bernie Sanders’s Hispanic outreach, advised Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego in Arizona and now counsels James Talarico in his fight in Texas, made the case plainly. It will not be enough to talk about crucial kitchen table issues; Democrats will also need to openly court the Hispanic working class with promises of economic renewal. That includes a nuanced position on immigration that acknowledges the very specific grievances about fair play the group still holds, while celebrating its hard-won successes as America at its best. It’s all about dignity.
Can a party that sometimes seems on the verge of splitting apart understand all this in time? The results in New York’s recent primaries, where candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America surged, suggest that the party’s priorities are tilting toward its activist, urban wing. Those priorities don’t clearly translate to the dozens of races across the country that depend on Latino working-class voters.
And then there is 2028. In the final session, Gallego offered a warning. “If Marco Rubio is the nominee to be president of the United States, we are in trouble,” he said. If Gallego is right, Democrats have little time to build a platform capable of countering the appeal of a charismatic, Spanish-fluent Republican candidate.
Trump’s appeal to many Latino voters was emotional, combative and familiar: the language of the strongman, a figure Latin America knows well. Sanders understood part of what others missed: He spoke about work, wages, power and self-worth in direct, material terms. To put it bluntly, this is not how the DSA approaches these issues. Democrats need to speak to working-class Latinos with respect and clarity: We see your work, we honor your sacrifice, and we will fight for the stability you have earned.
The clock is ticking.
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