Death, taxes and Jean Smart winning another Emmy are among life’s certainties.
But outside of the realm of the expected, what are we looking for when Emmy nominations arrive Wednesday?
I do have questions, namely:
Can two-time Emmy winner Zendaya earn a nod for “Euphoria,” a show that remained a ratings hit even if it seemed like people mostly watched to complain about it?
Might “Widow’s Bay,” television’s best new comedy, grab the momentum from “Hacks,” Smart’s Emmy-winning series that looked like it’d be taking a victory lap for its final season?
And, will voters stop encouraging Ryan Murphy or do we need to write another hundred think pieces about why “Love Story” felt so wrong?
For an Emmy season that looked more than a little underwhelming just a few weeks ago, those intrigues offer a wrinkle or two, something for us to chew on as we search for a candle that doubles as a receptacle for hot caramel sauce, as seen in the just-released final season of “The Bear” — a season that, because of its June release, won’t be eligible until 2027.
Meanwhile, here’s what we can look for this year.
Comedy series
“Abbott Elementary” “The Bear” “The Comeback” “Hacks” “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” “Only Murders in the Building” “Shrinking” “Widow’s Bay”
Possible surprise: “Rooster” Possible snub: “The Bear”
Google “Widow’s Bay” and your first result will be: “Did you mean: the next Martha’s Vineyard and definitely not cursed.” It’s an inspired bit of marketing for a series that found the sweet spot between comedy and horror, making us shriek with laughter and revulsion, sometimes simultaneously.
The Apple TV series premiered on April 29, arriving so late that only seven of its 10 episodes are eligible for Emmy consideration. Apple had considered bumping it to October, so it could establish a beachhead with guild and Globes voters before competing at the 2027 Emmys, but decided to enter the fray this year to compete with shows that, while still favorites, are a bit past their prime.
The inaugural season of “Widow’s Bay” evolved as a classic slow burn, establishing the world of its cursed New England island with care and then burrowing into its characters and lore with the kind of detail that prompts full-blown obsession. The 811-song playlist that Patricia made for her Sunset Cocktails party? Who doesn’t have a spare 60 hours to listen? Mining the multitude of horror movie references that the show ingenuously employs? Of course! Something’s wrong with you if you didn’t rewatch “Jaws” after the episode where, out at sea, Stephen Root’s cantankerous Wyck has his own Captain Quint USS Indianapolis monologue.
The question now: Did “Widow’s Bay” have enough time to hook Emmy voters? Or am I just so taken with this show, a series I myself came to late, that my enthusiasm is clouding my judgment? Short answer: “Widow’s Bay” may not get every nomination it deserves. (The late arrival makes its extraordinary season finale ineligible.) But I don’t think you can argue with perfection.
Comedy actress
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Possible surprise: Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” Possible snub: Edebiri
Remember when the biggest Emmy question about “The Bear” revolved around whether it belonged in the comedy categories? Now, after a couple of seasons that tried viewers’ patience when it came to narrative momentum, it’s fair to wonder whether the series — and its cast — will continue to be nominated. In the absence of anything better and because the show, even when spinning its wheels, continues to offer much to enjoy, I think “The Bear” is safe for now. And its final season, which dropped after voting ended, reaffirms just how good the series and its stars can be when it’s cooking.
Comedy actor
Steve Carell, “Rooster” Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay” Jason Segel, “Shrinking” Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Possible surprise: Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” Possible snub: White
It’s worth remembering that “The Studio” won comedy series last year, and its co-creator, Seth Rogen, prevailed here. In its absence, this category is open for business, with Rhys, so good at shifting between his show’s droll humor and genuine terror, an obvious choice. Short figures to get a small boost from the Netflix documentary “Marty, Life Is Short,” which offers a moving look at the losses he has endured over the years and his inspiring endurance. Short has never won an acting Emmy and you know he’d give a great speech.
Comedy supporting actress
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” Kate O’Flynn, “Widow’s Bay” Ashley Padilla, “Saturday Night Live” Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
Possible surprise: K Callan, “Widow’s Bay” Possible snub: Padilla
Last note (I promise) on “Widow’s Bay.” Because its season finale aired after the May 31 eligibility deadline, K Callan’s showcase episode opposite Rhys isn’t eligible, though anyone who watched the series might be inclined to vote for the 90-year-old actor anyway. Dorothy’s walk down memory lane, filled with tantalizing stories (“He got bit by an animal and became that animal,” she says of an old boyfriend), Tennessee Williams stitch-quotes, existential wisdom and bombshell revelations, was pitch-perfect, one of the standout moments of the television year. (Another, of course, was Patricia’s Sunset Cocktails party, with a tour de force turn from O’Flynn.)
Comedy supporting actor
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” Ebon Moss-Bacharach, “The Bear” Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” Stephen Root, “Widow’s Bay” Michael Urie, “Shrinking” Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Possible surprise: Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” Possible snub: Williams
Can we roll over last year’s “It’s time to give Harrison Ford an Emmy” campaign? Because it’s still time.
Drama series
“The Diplomat” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” “Paradise” “The Pitt” “Pluribus” “Slow Horses” “Stranger Things” “Task”
Possible surprise: “The Testaments” Possible snub: “Stranger Things”
It’s hard to believe that “The Pitt” earned a mere 13 nominations for its first season, winning for series, casting and for actors Noah Wyle, Katherine LaNasa and Shawn Hatosy. Encore victories seem assured for all but Hatosy, who will bump from guest actor to supporting, where he’ll compete against castmate Patrick Ball, among others. “Pluribus” figures to score plenty of recognition too — it might even best “The Pitt” for most nominations. But its prognosis for victory would seem guarded at best.
Drama actress
Kathy Bates, “Matlock” Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Possible surprise: Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments” Possible snub: Bates
Zendaya won for the first two seasons of “Euphoria,” becoming the youngest person to win in 2020 and, two years later, the youngest actress to take two Emmys. So hate on her show all you want (seriously, go ahead, it was a mess), but voters will (rightfully) give her a pass. Winning another Emmy is off the table, though, making this a race between the gifted Seehorn, a perennial Emmy underachiever, and Russell, nominated five times as actor and still looking for her first trophy. How fun would it be if the Emmys turn into a reunion for “The Americans” with both Russell and Rhys winning?
Drama actor
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” Walton Goggins, “Fallout” Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” Mark Ruffalo, “Task” Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
Possible surprise: Jon Hamm, “Your Friends and Neighbors” Possible snub: Goggins
Brown, Oldman and Wyle were nominated last year, with Wyle winning. Ruffalo as the grief-stricken, alcoholic FBI agent in “Task” is an easy add. That leaves one spot, and it’ll probably go to a veteran actor — Goggins, Hamm, maybe Billy Bob Thornton for “Landman” — though Peter Claffey would be a better choice as the beloved gentle giant in “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.”
Drama supporting actress
Isa Briones, “The Pitt” Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt” Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt” Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus”
Possible surprise: Fiona Dourif, “The Pitt” Possible snub: Briones
Last year, “The White Lotus” accounted for four of the category’s nominees. In its absence, the women from “The Pitt” figure to equal that number and perhaps even surpass it, though it’s hard to see voters bypassing past favorites Janney and Nicholson or overlooking Wydra’s subtle work as the emotionless emissary of the alien hive mind in “Pluribus.” Then again, understated performances often go unrewarded. Just ask Wydra’s co-star Seehorn.
Drama supporting actor
Patrick Ball, “The Pitt” Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt” Gerran Howell, “The Pitt” Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” Tom Pelphrey, “Task” Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus”
Possible surprise: James Marsden, “Paradise” Possible snub: Vesga
Will we ever know what this category would look like if “Severance,” “The White Lotus” and “The Pitt” aired seasons during the same eligibility window? I’m not holding my breath. But with “Severance” and “The White Lotus” vacating six of the seven supporting actor slots from last year, there’s plenty of room for old favorites (Lowden, Crudup) and new (Vesga for his nonverbal brilliance in “Pluribus”) as well a trio of standouts from “The Pitt.”
Limited series
“The Beast in Me” “Beef” “DTF St. Louis” “Half Man” “Love Story”
Possible surprise: “All Her Fault” Possible snub: “Half Man”
It wasn’t exactly a banner year for limited series with only “Love Story” sparking cultural discourse — mostly for all the wrong reasons. Richard Gadd’s “Half Man” was provocative with its brutally violent look at male rage and unresolved trauma. But you can’t permeate the culture if viewers refuse to watch the second episode. That leaves “Beef,” Lee Sung Jin’s anthology series about enmity, envy and the multiple ways that blood orange juice can be made, as the presumptive front-runner. “DTF St. Louis,” the strange, affecting look at suburban loneliness, belongs at the head of the pack.
Limited series / TV movie actress
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” Sally Field, “Remarkably Bright Creatures” Carey Mulligan, “Beef” Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story” Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault”
Possible surprise: Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women” Possible snub: Field
Can you win an Emmy for a hair-flip …?
Limited series / TV movie actor
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” Oscar Isaac, “Beef” Paul Anthony Kelly, “Love Story” Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me”
Possible surprise: Jamie Bell, “Half Man” Possible snub: Bateman
… Or looking really good while riding a bike?
Limited series / TV movie supporting actress
Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” Grace Gummer, “Love Story” Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” Cailee Spaeny, “Beef” Naomi Watts, “Love Story” Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef”
Possible surprise: Constance Zimmer, “Love Story” Possible snub: Cardellini
Misplaced or otherwise, all the best performances from limited series are in supporting this year, including Spaeny’s scene-stealing schemer in “Beef” and Cardellini’s passive-aggressive perfection in “DTF: St. Louis.”
Limited series / TV movie supporting actor
Jonathan Banks, “The Beast in Me” Jason Bateman, “DTF St. Louis” Richard Gadd, “Half Man” David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis” Charles Melton, “Beef” Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story”
Possible surprise: Troy Kotsur, “Black Rabbit” Possible snub: Banks
And here you have Melton’s vulnerable people-pleaser trying his best to find the right color of Gatorade for Spaeny in “Beef” and unlikely BFFs Bateman and Harbour burrowing into the mind of the suburban American male in “DTF: St. Louis.”
The post 2026 Emmy nominations predictions: Our awards expert makes his final picks appeared first on Los Angeles Times.
