ST. STEPHEN, S.C. — Black voters in South Carolina and other southern states are turning out in defiance of what many see as President Donald Trump’s efforts to suppress their political power, fueling Democratic hopes of clinching upset wins in the region in this fall’s midterm elections.
A surge in Black voter engagement is energizing close Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia, where Democrats go into the summer with leads in many polls. Some Democrats see a chance of long-shot victories in South Carolina, such as ousting longtime incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and flipping the congressional seat vacated by Rep. Nancy Mace (R).
“No matter what obstacles are in our way, we’re gonna just walk over those obstacles, and we’re voting,” said Beatrice Brown, 78, a retired public school teacher who drove other Black voters to the polls this month in primaries in the Lowcountry town of St. Stephen. “A voteless people is a hopeless people. And we’re not hopeless.”
Early voting in that round of South Carolina balloting surged to almost presidential-election levels. In the district represented by the state’s lone Black congressman, Rep. James E. Clyburn (D), turnout jumped by more than 50 percent.
The outpouring of support for Clyburn led state lawmakers to abandon a plan to carve Black Americans out of Clyburn’s district, with state Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey (R) warning that Republicans had angered voters “because they think we’re cheating.”
A few Republican states have resisted Trump’s directives for redrawing districts. Last week, Georgia’s legislature retreated in the face of big public demonstrations.
But the Supreme Court’s dismantling of the Voting Rights Act’s minority protections looms large. Louisiana, Alabama and Tennessee responded by quickly pushing through maps that dilute Black voting power, raising fears that the civil rights gains of the past 60 years are being destroyed.
The Cook Political Report and other observers shifted races in those states and others to the right, showing Republicans now with a numerical advantage heading into the fall.
Republicans dismiss Democratic claims of massive turnout as a fantasy, particularly in South Carolina. “Republicans will continue to dominate in South Carolina by remaining focused on the issues that matter to voters: lowering the cost of living, improving community safety, and securing the border,” National Republican Campaign Committee spokesman Reilly Richardson said via email.
But some political observers argue that the GOP’s actions will boomerang back against them.
Split Ticket, which builds election-forecasting models, said its data suggests an eight-point advantage for Democrats in what could be the most blue-friendly climate since 2008, according to an analysis by Lakshya Jain, the organization’s co-founder.
According to political data firm the Downballot, Democrats have overperformed by nearly 13 percentage points in 100-plus special elections since Trump took office in 2025. If that margin held, a host of safe Republican districts would become vulnerable.
Trump chipped away at Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in with Black voters in 2024. Black voters have tended to turn out in lower numbers than White voters. Political organizers see an opening to reverse both trends.
“We’re trying to break through some of the voter apathy that exists in states in the Deep South because of the deep poverty,” said Ashley Shelton of the Louisiana Power Coalition. “There’s also this hope that the rest of the country understands what this means — as goes the South, so goes the nation. It’s really true right now, the South is on fire but before long this comes to a community near you.”
Louisiana’s redistricting efforts sparked massive turnout for the first round of primary elections in May, with Senate nominees on the ballot. In Mississippi, thousands turned out for a rainy voting rights rally and Gov. Tate Reeves (R) canceled a legislative session to take up redistricting, though he expressed his intent to eliminate the state’s lone majority-Black congressional district.
“People are seeing these redistricting efforts as an existential crisis,” said Charles Taylor of the Mississippi branch of the NAACP. He said the organization is getting an influx of new volunteers and planning field hearings to ensure a large turnout of Black voters this fall.
“Folks are recognizing that there’s a will of some people in this country to take us back prior to 1965, but there is also a resistance that has formed to say we need to continue to go forward,” Taylor said.
Democratic organizers acknowledge the challenge of keeping voters energized throughout the summer and fall.
In Alabama, rapid redistricting could dampen voter participation, said Shayla Mitchell, turnout coordinator for Alabama Values.
“Voters in general are expressing a lot of confusion,” Mitchell said. Her group is arranging voter education sessions and making early preparations for get-out-the-vote efforts.
Some activists caution that it would be a mistake for Democrats to assume that high Black voter turnout is a foregone conclusion.
“The party has not figured out how to effectively engage [and] organize electorally in the South,” said Tequila Johnson of Tennessee’s Equity Alliance. While Black voters are “a lot more aware and a lot more awakened” to the idea that hard-fought voting rights are being rolled back, she said, Democrats have to do more to inspire confidence that they’ll follow through with helpful policies once elections are over.
“Time and investment will tell if we’re able to turn those voters into actual Democratic voters or turn out voters who typically stay home,” Johnson said.
In South Carolina, Democrats are trying to goose the momentum by running candidates in every statehouse, congressional and statewide race on the ballot. Having a choice in every locality will bring more people to the polls, said Jaime Harrison, former chairman of the DNC who unsuccessfully challenged Graham for his South Carolina Senate seat in 2020.
“The real wild card,” Harrison said, is whether state Democrats can get enough resources to take advantage of the favorable climate. “If we do that … if a blue wave comes, South Carolina has some surprises [in store],” he said. “The Republicans have nobody but Donald Trump to thank for this awakening.”
It’s still a big ‘if.’
Last week’s runoff elections failed to draw the high turnout seen in the first round of primary voting. Voters in the 1st Congressional District chose Democrat Nancy S. Lacore, a former Navy admiral fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while Republicans picked Charleston County council member Jenny Costa Honeycutt as their nominee.
Black voters are crucial to Democratic hopes in the state, making up some 60 percent of the party’s electorate there. In the 1st district — a long strip of Lowcountry coastline that skirts Charleston — about 17 percent of the electorate is African American. That’s significant, but not comparable to the majority-minority 6th Congressional District that Clyburn represents nearby.
The 1st district backed Trump by about 13 points in 2024, and Mace slightly outperformed the president. Now that she is not seeking reelection, Democrats think they have a shot at the open seat if they can mobilize massive turnout.
In Moncks Corner along Lake Moultrie, about 30 miles north of Charleston, most people casting ballots on the morning of last week’s primary were White Republicans.
“I’m a strong Trump supporter,” said Mary Rudloff, 74, a retired events planner, who said she agreed with GOP policies on immigration and maintaining law and order.
Wearing a straw hat against the 97-degree heat, Rudloff acknowledged some momentum on the Democratic side.
“I want to be optimistic, because I think [Republicans] are the ones that are going to bring us back to where we need to be,” Rudloff said.
Could Democrats flip the seat? “They may,” she said.
Retiree and Republican voter William Oscar Hutto, 85, pointed out that Democrats captured the seat for a single term in 2018, but said he thinks the party has tilted too far to the left to manage it again. Still, he cautioned that Trump — whom he supports — might alienate some voters over his redistricting push, the war with Iran and efforts to “spend money putting his name on buildings.”
Another 20 miles north in St. Stephen, Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans — though both groups were small, 198 vs.140. Most businesses on Main Street along the railroad tracks were empty or boarded up. The largely rural area has lost jobs and access to health care, residents said, leaving them hungry for change.
Brown, the retired school teacher, sees an urgency this year that’s comparable, on one level, to the thrill of voting in 2008 for Barack Obama to be the nation’s first Black president. In that case, “we voted for hope,” she said. This time “all races understand the vital importance of … trying something new to get off the current road of destruction.”
Other Black voters who stopped by the sandy parking lot at the American Legion hall to cast their ballots said they felt personally threatened by Trump’s moves on voting rights.
“They’re trying to make it so I can’t vote no more. It’s that sad,” said Troy Goodman, 65, a deacon at the local Baptist church. Though he had made sure to show up for the runoff election, Goodman said he worries the overall climate will discourage Black people from voting.
The next day, barber Kevin Paige, 49, trimmed the hair of a young customer and said it was important for Black people like himself to vote to elect members of Congress who would check Trump’s power.
“He thinks he’s got all the power to do anything he wants to do,” Paige said. “He’s trying to make it so he can be there forever.”
He voted in the primary, Paige said, but forgot that the day before had been the runoff and didn’t cast a ballot. John H. Hamilton, 71, a disabled military veteran sitting across the shop and carrying a plastic bag containing his prescription medication, said he had wanted to vote but had no way to get to the polls.
Both vowed to vote this fall.
Eric Lau contributed to this report.
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