With Representative Jerry Nadler retiring after representing New York’s 12th Congressional District for more than three decades, a crowded Democratic primary will decide his successor. Based on recent polling, the leading candidates are two state assemblymen, Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, and Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy.
Ten polls have been released publicly in this race — a fairly high number for a House primary — but only one, an Emerson College poll commissioned by PIX 11 and Nexstar from mid-May, was fielded independently. The rest were paid for by campaigns or outside groups aligned with specific candidates, who may release results selectively.
Mr. Schlossberg led in four of the six surveys conducted between January and April, including a pair of Schoen Cooperman Research polls commissioned by a PAC opposing Mr. Bores, as well as internal polls from the Bores and George Conway campaigns. But his early advantage appears to have rested almost entirely on name recognition. As his opponents ramped up their campaigns, his support in the polls fell quickly — he has placed third in three of the four polls conducted since the start of May.
In Mr. Conway’s internal polls, Mr. Bores and Mr. Lasher, who is Mr. Nadler’s chosen successor, each gained more than ten percentage points between the campaign’s early March and mid-May polls, whereas Mr. Schlossberg lost nine.
The four most recent polls, all fielded in May, point to a competitive two-way race between Mr. Bores and Mr. Lasher, with no survey showing the pair separated by more than five points.
One of the most consistent findings in the polls is that a large share of voters are still making up their minds: In three of the four most recent polls, more than a quarter of voters said they were undecided. Considering how little separation there is between the front-runners, this race will hinge on where those voters land.
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