President Trump deployed one of his signature endorsements to try to boost a loyal upstate Republican. Super PACs have spent more than $50 million. And then there is a Kennedy scion testing the enduring power of American political royalty.
But as New York’s hypercompetitive congressional primary season barrels toward its conclusion on Tuesday, the results may yet turn on a handful of questions that only voters can answer.
Here are five of the most pressing.
How potent is the Mamdani effect?
Zohran Mamdani, 34, won the New York City mayoralty last year with more votes than any candidate in decades, and poll numbers show he remains overwhelmingly popular in the House districts where he has endorsed candidates.
On Tuesday, the mayor is trying to leverage that popularity and political acumen to help two challengers knock off Democratic incumbents and a third leftist win a House seat being vacated by Representative Nydia Velázquez, who is retiring.
The effort has already strained important relationships with the left-leaning Working Families Party, labor unions and Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Brooklynite in line to become speaker if Democrats retake control of the House.
If the mayor succeeds, it will go a long way toward establishing Mr. Mamdani as a political kingmaker. If he loses, he may look more like a man than a movement.
Do Israel and its wars still move votes?
For two years now, no issue has divided the Democratic Party as painfully and completely as the United States’ relationship with Israel. This year’s elections in New York, home to the largest Jewish population in the country, have been no exception.
In races against Representatives Adriano Espaillat and Daniel Goldman, challengers backed by Mr. Mamdani have made the incumbents’ support of Israel and their ties to the pro-Israel lobby the heart of their campaigns. While both incumbents have been sharply critical of Israel’s war efforts, they have stopped short of calling its actions in Gaza a genocide and voting to cut off weapons sales.
In more moderate districts in Manhattan and the Hudson Valley suburbs, the candidates have agonized over how to balance criticism and support for the nation.
Will young voters turn out for the left?
A year ago, Mr. Mamdani won by driving record numbers of young voters to the polls. But their numbers dipped back toward more normal levels during New York City’s nine-day early voting period this June.
A New York Times analysis of the data found that the average age of early voters this year rose by a full decade — to 57 from 47 — compared with 2025. If that trend continues, polls suggest it could hurt two of the candidates Mr. Mamdani has backed, Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier, who are counting on robust turnouts among voters under 40.
It might also undermine another candidate, Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy, who is trying to win young voters back to his party.
Super PACs: Helping or hurting?
The figures are staggering.
Groups connected to two major A.I. companies and other Silicon Valley giants have spent more than $25 million on TV ads and reams of mailers trying to help or hurt a single candidate, Assemblyman Alex Bores, in Manhattan.
Former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has single-handedly put in $10 million supporting Mr. Bores’s rival, Micah Lasher. And a smattering of other groups — including a PAC supporting Latino candidates and one trying to advance Palestinian interests — have spent smaller amounts on their own influence campaigns.
The ads can drive home negative attacks against candidates or buff the images of others. But after a long primary season, interviews across the districts in play show the big-money spending is also backfiring with some voters who are wary of the role billionaires and corporate giants play in American politics.
Whither the weather?
In recent years, a poorly timed January snowstorm and a crippling June heat wave have warped turnout at the last minute in closely watched New York primary fights. Studies suggest they were no outliers: Weather can actually have an effect on who comes to the polls, if a small one.
The National Weather Service has forecast that Tuesday has the potential to be a day where weather comes into play. The agency says that the New York City area could see rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, with diminishing changes as the afternoon goes on. Polls are open 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. across the state, but inclement weather could make it particularly hard for older voters to get to the polls.
The post Factors in the N.Y. Primaries: Mamdani, Big Money and a Threat of Rain appeared first on New York Times.
