On Thursday, voters in Makerfield, an electoral district in northern England, will go to the polls for a special election, and the outcome of the race has the potential to reshape Britain.
At one level, the contest is typical, with many candidates focused on hyperlocal issues including garbage disposal, potholes and money for schools.
But in other ways, it is unique. Andy Burnham, the Labour Party candidate, is running to become a lawmaker so that he can challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the party. If that happens, Mr. Burnham could become Britain’s next prime minister.
Here is what to know.
Why is Britain holding this election in the first place?
The special election, known as a by-election in Britain, was triggered after a Labour lawmaker, Josh Simons, resigned to make way for Mr. Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester.
If Mr. Burnham wins, he will be eligible to challenge Mr. Starmer, whose popularity has plunged to some of the lowest levels of any prime minister in modern British history. In surveys, people say they are angry about the economy, public services, taxes and immigration — but also express visceral dislike of the prime minister himself.
Mr. Starmer has made progress on tackling some issues but not enough to turn round public opinion. Mr. Burnham, a more charismatic communicator and Labour’s most popular politician, is viewed within the party as its best hope of winning back voters.
In Makerfield, Labour faces particular competition from Reform U.K., the populist, right-wing party. Reliable polling is scarce, but insiders believe the outcome could be close.
Who is Andy Burnham, and what does he stand for?
Mr. Burnham, 56, was born on the outskirts of Liverpool and grew up in Culcheth, not far from Makerfield. His northern roots have shaped his politics, and he has long complained about Westminster and the news media being too London-centric.
The longest stretch in his career was as the member of Parliament for Leigh, in Greater Manchester, from 2001 until 2017. As a lawmaker, Mr. Burnham rose rapidly, becoming the culture secretary and later health secretary under Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
He tried twice to become Labour’s leader, in 2010 and in 2015, when he was the early front-runner, but lost to the hard-left Jeremy Corbyn. Disenchanted with Westminster, Mr. Burnham left Parliament and won the mayoral election in Greater Manchester. In 2021, he won again with an even larger vote share.
Mr. Burnham’s almost 10 years as mayor coincided with a period of economic growth in Manchester. He won praise from locals during the Covid-19 pandemic, when he made a speech angrily criticizing the Conservative government over the effects of its lockdowns on his region. He took the city’s buses back into public ownership, making some rides free.
Along the way, he transformed his political identity into that of an outsider to the government in London. And he gained a reputation as a plain talker who understands the needs of working people. Critics have pointed to his limited foreign policy experience, which they say could be a weakness for a future prime minister in a world facing protracted wars and geopolitical tension.
What will the results say about Britain’s right wing?
In May, the Reform U.K. party led by Nigel Farage won 24 of the 25 municipal council seats up for grabs in the Makerfield area, which had been dominated by Labour for decades. The election on Thursday gives Mr. Farage another chance to demonstrate that voters support his anti-immigrant, anti-Europe, anti-net-zero agenda.
If Reform’s candidate, Rob Kenyon, wins, it would arguably represent one of Mr. Farage’s biggest victories since his campaign for the 2016 Brexit referendum that took Britain out of the European Union.
But an upstart far-right party called Restore Britain is also running in Makerfield, and it has been supported online by Elon Musk. If that splits the right-wing vote between Restore and Reform, it could help Mr. Burnham. (Under Britain’s “first-past-the-post” electoral system, winners need only one more vote than any other candidate.)
A defeat would be a blow to Reform, raising questions about its ability to field high-quality candidates and to answer questions about its reliance on a few wealthy donors. Last month, it was revealed that Mr. Farage had accepted a gift worth 5 million pounds (about $6.7 million) from a British crypto billionaire based in Thailand.
Could Keir Starmer really be pushed out of office?
Yes, though how quickly is unclear. Mr. Burnham has said that if he wins, he would join any leadership contest against Mr. Starmer.
Other candidates could also run, including Wes Streeting, who resigned as Mr. Starmer’s health secretary last month.
The prime minister has repeatedly said in recent weeks that he would fight a challenge.
Many Labour lawmakers hope that if Mr. Burnham wins, Mr. Starmer might agree to a timetable in which he would remain in place for a few weeks or months to ensure stability while allowing a leadership contest to take place. A new Labour leader — and prime minister — could be installed at the party’s annual conference in September.
The post Why a Small Election in England Will Have Giant Consequences appeared first on New York Times.
