For Iranians exhausted by months of war, the announcement of a preliminary peace deal brought a rare moment of relief: the prospect of nights without explosions and an end, however fragile, to a conflict that had deepened the country’s isolation and financial despair.
But almost as soon as the news began to spread, relief gave way to a more familiar feeling—uncertainty over whether a ceasefire would hold, whether the economy could recover, and whether the war had ultimately strengthened the government’s hand at home.
“My strongest reaction is relief. I’m relieved that there will be no more bombs … that I will be able to go to sleep without worrying about being woken up by bombs exploding around me, glass shattering,” says Somayeh, a 37-year-old who, like all other Iranians TIME spoke to for this story, asked to use a pseudonym because of fear of regime reprisals.
“The problem is, I don’t know how long this will last. America and Israel attacked both times while there were negotiations going on,” the Tehrani woman adds.
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“I’m happy but also very worried,” says Sahand, a professor in his 40s. “I wouldn’t be surprised if [President Donald Trump] attacks the day after the November elections in the U.S.”
The nation was already in the throes of an economic meltdown, with its national currency plummeting to record lows and its point-to-point inflation rate soaring to 77% in May, according to Iran’s Central Bank.
“Even before the war, the economy was already in a bad situation,” says Hesam, a 63-year-old civil engineer. “Now, I think we’re going to end up in the [record books] as the worst economy possible.”
For Ali, a Tehrani technician who had to lay off his half a dozen workers, the economic situation isn’t theoretical. “Even if [the war] doesn’t start again, what are we going to do with all the damage that it’s done to industry, to our economy?” the 56-year-old asks, continuing: “There’s hardly been any work in the last few months, and nobody knows what’s going to happen with the economic situation. Can it even become better?”
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It is not only the private sector that is suffering. State-owned entities are also reporting layoffs, deferred payments, and austerity measures.
“I really believe that the government is out of funds. Wage increases, bonuses, contract renewals, have all been either delayed or severely limited in state institutions,” says Sahand.
With key industries such as steel and petrochemical plants heavily hit during the war, what little of the economy was functioning before the war is already screeching to a halt.
The worst part for Ali is that, unlike other Persian Gulf states that also suffered heavy damage to their industries in retaliatory strikes by the Revolutionary Guards, Iran will face an uphill battle to gather financing and purchase machinery and equipment to rebuild the plants wrecked by the bombs.
“Rebuilding these won’t be easy. It’s going to take a long time, and this will only mean that work and business will become less and less and maybe completely stop,” he says. “It’s not going to be easy to get back to the day before the war began.”
A shift in public sentiment
The Islamic Republic has long been quick to blame the United States and Israel for any setback Iran experiences. But what is different this time is that many Iranians may now agree.
“If one thing the Islamic Republic said was true, it’s that these two countries are totally untrustworthy, they don’t even adhere to their own stated values,” Somayeh says.
Others now specifically blame Trump for their country’s economic woes. “Believe me, some people are already even going hungry,” says Hesam, “and it’s all the fault of that stupid blond realtor.”
For others, seeing the regime proven right is unpleasant. “America and Israel … proved they’re enemies of the Iranian people, and whenever the Islamic Republic is proven right in something, it just makes them even more arrogant in everything,” says Ali.
Neda, an activist in her 40s who has been imprisoned in the past for criticizing the regime, has noticed a palpable shift.
“So many of the people around me, relatives, neighbors, friends, now truly believe that the Islamic Republic was correct when it said that Israel and the United States are the sworn enemy of the Iranian people,” she recounts. “What Trump and that yabu have done is only make the core of the Islamic Republic stronger, more revolutionary,” she says, using a word that translates to “mule” in reference to Netanyahu.
The war’s most lasting damage may not be the destruction it left behind, but a loss of hope, Neda believes.
“The regime will never back down against the demands of the people now that it believes it has won against two of the strongest militaries in the world,” she says, adding that, for the foreseeable future at least: “There’s no inclination or potential left among the majority of the people to protest against the regime anymore.”
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