After more than 50 years of filmmaking, it is clear that Steven Spielberg still commands some box office drawing power, as his new original film with Universal, “Disclosure Day,” got off to a solid start with a domestic opening weekend of $44 million and a global launch of just under $93 million.
That’s not bad considering what the film is: an original sci-fi movie with no IP, and where the director is the marketing campaign’s biggest selling point. It is a mystery chase thriller, where its heroes are seeking answers for much of the movie’s runtime. So without spoiling those answers, the marketing has leaned into the questions its leads have about the existence of aliens and their place in a government cover-up.
While co-lead Emily Blunt is certainly no slouch when it comes to her box office record with hits like the “Quiet Place” films and “The Devil Wears Prada 2” — which just crossed $675 million worldwide — her face is obscured on the posters and ads for “Disclosure Day” as part of its overall mysterious tone, while Spielberg’s surname is displayed prominently above the film’s title.
But while “Disclosure Day” wasn’t as pricey to make as recent misfires like “Masters of the Universe,” a $170 million-plus production that hasn’t even made $100 million worldwide after two weekends, it’s still up in the air whether Spielberg’s movie can turn a theatrical profit against its reported $115 million production budget with a marketing spend of around $80 million.
And while critics may have enjoyed “Disclosure Day” more than “Masters of the Universe” or the “Star Wars” misfire “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” there are arguments for and against whether audiences follow suit.
Best Case Scenario
In the best-case scenario, “Disclosure Day” finds a niche as a unique alternative to the films currently in theaters and the titles coming in the second half of June, which include the widely expected $1 billion hit “Toy Story 5” and the Warner Bros./DC blockbuster “Supergirl.”
The original horror hit “Obsession” is still drawing audiences after a month in theaters, but there are moviegoers who won’t be interested in its disturbing cautionary tale or the colorful IP-driven blockbusters on the marquee. Put simply, there’s only one original, well-reviewed wide release in theaters right now that doesn’t have an R rating, and it is “Disclosure Day.”
Universal is also banking on continued turnout from older moviegoers who have a deeper affinity for Spielberg, as 59% of the film’s opening weekend audience was over the age of 35 with 24% over the age of 55. By comparison, the 25-34 demo had the same 24% share, with 18-24 far lower at just 14%.
And according to audience polls on PostTrak, the best scores came from the over-55 demo, who gave it an 87% overall positive score with 75% giving it PostTrak’s highest rating of “definite recommend.” For contrast, the “definite recommend” percentage drops to 67% for moviegoers over 35 and to 61% when all demographics are included.
If the old adage of older moviegoers coming out steadily over a film’s run rather than rushing out to opening weekend rings true, then “Disclosure Day” could stem the tide against the blockbusters to come with a dependable audience subset to mine from.
“Hollywood is always going to go to where the audience demand is being seen,” said Rentrak senior analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “This is a chance for older audiences to show that there is still an appetite for mature, original fare, and I think there’s a scenario where these new, Gen-Z driven films can exist at the marketplace alongside filmmakers like Spielberg, who was once himself the young talent changing Hollywood.”
But at best, steady turnout from Gen X and Boomer audiences worldwide will only get “Disclosure Day” to around break-even territory. To rise above $300 million worldwide, it needs to capture more moviegoers, and that may be where it falls short.
Worst Case Scenario
In the worst-case scenario, “Disclosure Day” falls victim to the generational trends that have uplifted “Obsession” and “Backrooms” and have struck down “Masters of the Universe” and “Mandalorian,” with younger audiences anointing the former as box office hits while showing no interest in the latter.
Only this time it’s not a long-in-the-tooth IP that’s getting passed over by younger audiences, but simply a story that isn’t resonating with Gen Z, who don’t have the fond memories of seeing past Spielberg films in theaters that older generations have (the oldest Gen Z-er was five when “Minority Report” and “Catch Me If You Can” hit theaters).
On top of the PostTrak scores above, “Disclosure Day” got a B on CinemaScore, the lowest for a Spielberg wide release since “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” in 2008.
This isn’t the first time that Spielberg’s original sci-fi fare hasn’t gotten resounding audience acclaim. In the 2000s, “Minority Report” and “War of the Worlds” both got a B+ on Cinema Score, and his 2001 film “A.I.,” while now regarded as a classic, got a C+ upon release.
But if the lower PostTrak scores among younger moviegoers are indeed a sign that “Disclosure Day” is less likely to draw in younger moviegoers than older ones, that could make “Toy Story 5” even more of a problem for the Universal movie. Pixar released “Toy Story 4” to the tune of $1.07 billion in 2019, showing this franchise has long legs with families and younger audiences.
With projections for “Toy Story 5” starting at $150 million and topping out at around the $182 million Fri.-Sun. animation opening record held by “Incredibles 2,” the Pixar sequel is showing four-quadrant interest, not just family interest. If the film is as well-received as the past four “Toy Story” installments — and it’s got a new Taylor Swift song to boost a classic Pixar tearjerker moment — then “Disclosure Day” may be swiftly forgotten by the age demo that decides which big-budget films become hits.
If “Disclosure Day” takes an over 60% drop next weekend or, worse, a 70% drop like “Masters of the Universe,” it would be a sobering moment for cinephiles as a summer blockbuster from the filmmaker who invented the entire concept proves he is not immune to the march of time, his new film drawing as little interest among the youth as his hero Indiana Jones did in his college lectures.
But optics aside, this is something that both Universal and Spielberg can shrug off. Even in its best-case scenario, “Disclosure Day” wasn’t counted on to be Universal’s biggest or even second biggest summer tentpole. Not when the studio has two potential billion-dollar hits with Illumination’s “Minions & Monsters” and Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” coming in July.
And Spielberg? Well, he’s Steven Spielberg. He’s just as at home making smaller budget movies like “The Fabelmans” and “The Post” as he is making big tentpole films, and as the highest-grossing director of all time, the 79-year-old filmmaker has all the creative freedom one could ever ask for and, frankly, nothing to prove.
Meanwhile, his work as a producer continues at Amblin Entertainment, which is developing films like a Chris Columbus-directed legacyquel to “Gremlins,” Zach Cregger’s original sci-fi thriller “The Flood” co-produced by New Line, and Chinonye Chukwu’s adaptation of the literary classic “Death of a Salesman.”
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