An elections expert on Sunday flagged the “unforced error” that could determine which political party controls the Senate following the 2026 midterm election.
Democrats have been vying for control of the Senate, as it would give them leverage to potentially convict President Donald Trump if he is impeached after the midterms. The Democrats have said that impeaching the president is their number-one priority following the November election. Trump was impeached twice during his first term, but was not convicted by the Senate in either trial.
However, the odds of controlling the Upper Chamber don’t appear to be in Democrats’ favor at the moment, according to Zachary Donnini, the data science chief at VoteHub. Donnini told progressive YouTuber Brian Tyler Cohen in a new interview that VoteHub’s model currently projects Republicans to hold onto the Senate following the midterms, and one issue the Democrats are facing is candidate quality in key states like Maine and Michigan.
“The candidate quality in these states is unclear,” Donnini said. “I don’t want to say that, ‘Oh, the Democrats are going to throw away these races because of poor candidate quality.’ There’s no evidence to make you think that will definitely happen.”
Democrats are running Graham Platner in Maine against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who has faced considerable criticism for her apparent flip-flops supporting controversial Trump nominees and policies. Platner has his own issues in the race, like his tattoos with Nazi imagery and allegations of impropriety from former girlfriends.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has given the national party some headaches because of his close ties to controversial streamer Hasan Piker and his support for Palestine.
Donnini compared those candidates to others that the Democrats are running in battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina.
“But it is important to consider Georgia and North Carolina, [where] you have these battle-tested candidates, John Ossoff and Roy Cooper, who we know are very good at winning elections and strongly believe they can do so in such a blue year in their purple states,” Donnini said. “I’m sure Democrats wish they had a Roy Cooper, wish they had a John Ossoff to run in these states. But they don’t, so it’s just more of a question mark.”
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