WASHINGTON — A senior US official said Friday there’s a 75% to 80% chance that American and Iranian officials will sign a peace agreement in the “next few days.”
“We have received assurances from Pakistan and Qatar that Iranians are ready to sign,” the official told a small group of journalists — after President Trump announced a day earlier a deal had been reached.
“We don’t count our chickens before they’re hatched. Do we have a deal yet? No. But as the president said, we’ve agreed to the concepts, but no deal until it’s signed.”
The official said Friday, “we feel 75-80 percent certain we’ll be signing this in the next few days but there’s always some level of uncertainty when you’re dealing with Iran.”
Dozens of prior announcements have claimed a deal is near, but Trump administration officials insist that peace is truly within reach.
Vice President JD Vance was expected to travel to Europe to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iranian officials — after Vance led in-person talks in Pakistan on April 11-12. It’s unclear when the deal would be ready to sign, and no immediate travel plans have been announced.
The MOU would not settle all details, but would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while beginning the process of sanctions relief and setting the stage for final talks on destroying Iran’s estimated 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium.
American officials have entertained face-saving options for Iran that would allow for the uranium to be diluted on-site, or transferred to a neutral third country such as Pakistan for destruction.
The US has denied reports that Iran would receive any money upfront upon signing and insisted that any financial relief would come only if Iran fulfills its obligations. Long-running disagreements over the MOU included Iran’s effort to secure $6 billion in assets held by Qatar to purchase food and medical supplies.
Peace efforts have been beset by poor communications and factions on each side preferring a more protracted conflict.
The text of the MOU has not yet been released. But the senior US official said Iran has agreed “in principle” to allow international IAEA inspectors and the US to destroy and remove its nuclear material — stored in three different locations.
The official described the new agreement as the “antidote to the JCPOA [the Obama administration’s 2015 Iran nuclear deal]” because the very stockpile that was allowed to be built up [under the JCPOA] would be eliminated.
Sanctions relief is also outlined in the document, along with a proposed $200 billion investment in Iranian infrastructure by Gulf Arab countries.
Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency on Friday released a stunning 14-point alleged blueprint of the MOU, claiming that the US would release $24 billion in frozen assets — half before nuclear talks — a suspension of oil sanctions and a $300 billion reconstruction fund by the US and allies.
Trump denied the accuracy of that report, which set off alarm among Israeli officials and more hawkish Americans, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) saying it would be “akin to a Marshall Plan for Germany with the Nazis still in charge.”
“The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing,” Trump fumed on social media.
“What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with…They better get their act together, and FAST!”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared to disavow the Mehr report, saying that “the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.”
Trump re-posted Araghchi’s social media statement.
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