Just days ago, President Trump said that a peace deal with Iran was within reach. But the volleys of airstrikes that the United States and Iran are exchanging this week risk starting a deadly new chapter in their monthslong war, analysts said Thursday.
The fighting could be contained, even immediately, if either Mr. Trump or Iran’s leaders decided to recommit to an April cease-fire agreement meant to usher along talks to open the Strait of Hormuz and permanently end the conflict.
But that increasingly seems unlikely. As both countries threaten more and broader strikes, “this may well be a new phase in the war,” said Riccardo Alcaro, an Iran expert at the Institute of International Affairs in Rome.
Other experts agreed. “I don’t see anyone willing to back down, so I think escalation is the more likely option,” said Sascha Bruchmann, a former officer in the German military who is a Bahrain-based analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
He asked whether the cease-fire the two sides reached in April was still relevant. Iran’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that the latest U.S. strikes had in effect rendered the truce “meaningless.”
“What do you even call this?” Mr. Bruchmann said.
Mr. Trump’s decision to attack Iran for two straight days went beyond a measured response to the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the strait on Monday, Mr. Alcaro said. Mr. Trump promised another round of strikes on Thursday, a day after his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, told reporters: “If we need to negotiate with bombs, we’ll negotiate with bombs.”
Mr. Alcaro said that Mr. Trump appeared to be seeking to use bombs to push Iran into opening the critical waterway, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas was shipped before the war began.
Iran has in effect closed the strait, sending global energy prices soaring. It is unlikely to ratchet back its strikes on U.S. bases and allied interests in the Mideast as long as it is under attack, Mr. Alcaro said.
“If the Iranians perceive this military power is to force them to accept concessions they are unwilling to accept, they are much more likely to respond by escalating than by giving in,” he said.
If the United States is undeterred by strikes targeting Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan — all countries that host American forces — Mr. Alcaro said that Iran might launch more strikes on merchant ships in the strait and energy infrastructure elsewhere in the Middle East. Since the war began in February, Iranian missiles and drones have struck major energy facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
A long-term war is not inevitable, Mr. Bruchmann said, but “something needs to give” — and he doubted that Iran’s leaders would capitulate.
“Obviously, the country and the population is hurting, but Iran is playing strong,” he said.
Mr. Alcaro said that the question for Mr. Trump was how long he would persist in striking Iran if the latest attacks don’t force its hand.
Last year, he said, the United States launched a monthlong bombing campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, but failed to establish air superiority over the Red Sea. Mr. Trump abruptly declared an end to hostilities after expending at least $1 billion in weapons and munitions without a clear victory.
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