It’s jobs day, and we’re about to see whether the US economy’s recent strong run of job growth continued through May.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release new data at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to show steady unemployment at 4.3% and job growth of 85,000 in May. If the report matches or beats that projection, it’ll be the third month of healthy results in a row after March’s 185,000 jobs added and April’s 115,000. The new figures will be published just under two weeks before the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh‘s first interest rate decision.
Check back here throughout the morning for new posts on how the US job market has been looking and what we learn from the new estimates.
Market update
As investors await the May jobs report and its implications for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting in two weeks, stock futures are mixed.
The Dow Jones is set to climb around 108 points, or 0.2%, at the open, while futures for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are lower, set to decline 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively at the open.
“Softer-than-expected data would be unlikely to ease inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East crisis or soften the stance of Federal Reserve hawks,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote wrote in a morning email.
“Stronger-than-expected figures, on the other hand, could fuel risk appetite on the view that the economy remains strong enough to withstand higher interest rates,” she wrote.
Which industries are hiring?
Healthcare led the way in job growth in April, as has typically been the case in recent years, but transportation and warehousing followed pretty close behind — at 37,300 and 30,300, respectively. While hiring was pretty broad-based, the white-collar-heavy information and financial activities sectors were among those that lost jobs.
“There are some signs that employer demand is picking back up, which is good news for job seekers, but I think we’re still at a point where the balance of power is still very different than it was a couple of years ago,” said Cory Stahle, senior economist at the job platform Indeed.
Wages vs. inflation
The specter of shrinking real wages is once again haunting the US economy. Based on April’s year-over-year consumer price index and average hourly earnings data, inflation outpaced wage growth for the first time since 2023.
Consumer prices rose 3.8% in April, the largest increase since May 2023, as energy prices spiked as a result of the Iran war. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings increased 3.6%, better than March’s 3.4% rise but short of the 3.9% gain a year prior.
What the April jobs report showed
The economy added 115,000 jobs in April, beating expectations and ending almost a year of bouncing back and forth each month between net job gains and losses.
Cory Stahle, senior economist at the job platform Indeed, said it was a good report overall, with stable unemployment of 4.3% as an encouraging sign, but he doesn’t think it’s enough to ease concerns of uncertainty in the job market.
“It’s too early to start celebrating and saying, ‘Hey, we’re at this turning point. Looks like the economy is all good,'” he said. “It’s still not clear how some of these structural things are going to play in and also how the conflict in Iran is going to pan out.”
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