With many races still very tight and millions of ballots yet to be counted, political experts said Democrats are likely to hold — or even gain — the edge as results of the primary election come into focus.
Republicans appear to have over-performed in early vote counts, but for a variety of reasons, experts believe the ballots will lean more Democratic as the latest vote-by-mail ballots are counted. This could benefit progressives in close races, but by how much remains an open question.
“Don’t count [Councilmember] Nithya Raman out yet,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, who closely tracks local elections.
Raman is currently in third place behind reality TV personality Spencer Pratt and Mayor Karen Bass, who has secured a spot in the runoff. Raman would have to make up significant ground to reach Pratt and receive a sizable portion of remaining votes.
“Pratt has an edge … but it’s not free from doubt at this point,” Yaroslavsky said.
Rob Stutzman, a longtime GOP strategist, agrees the remaining vote count will skew more strongly for Democrats, but he’s “not so sure it’s going to change where we’re at.”
“I don’t think you’re going to see a big swing,” Stutzman said.
Raman’s chances rely on her beating Bass considerably in the remaining count — “that doesn’t seem very likely,” Stutzman said.
Still, the GOP — long the minority in deep blue California — had things to brag about on election night. Pratt, a Republican, clearly broke through to a certain segment of Los Angeles, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. And Steve Hilton, a Fox News commentator backed by President Trump, emerged as the leading vote-getter in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. Experts have said both tapped into dissatisfaction with the status quo in Democratic politics.
But in recent years, early momentum from Republicans has been tempered as the vote count becomes more complete, especially as Democrats are generally more comfortable voting by mail, a process that drags out election results. And this primary, a push from the Democratic Party to have voters cast later ballots increases the possibility of a blue swing.
Yaroslavsky predicted that ballots are going to get “more democratic, more progressive,” particularly in Los Angeles County.
“The Republicans over-performed,” Yaroslavsky said of early vote tallies.
This phenomenon was particularly evident last primary, when Bass initially trailed developer Rick Caruso in the mayoral race, but as more ballots came in, Bass continued to gain a lead.
As of Wednesday morning, a higher share — 32% — of counted ballots came from registered Republicans across the state, compared with 29% during 2022’s primary at this point in the count, according to election tracking firm Political Data Inc. And Democrats have made up a smaller share of early vote counts this primary — 47% thus far compared with 51% in 2022 — which include early mailed-in and dropped-off ballots and votes cast at in-person polls.
The top two vote-getters advance to the November election, regardless of party.
That blue swing could also affect some statewide contests, experts said, particularly in the close race for governor. The top three vote-getters as of Wednesday morning — Hilton and Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer — were all within a few percentage points, though less than 60% of the expected vote had been counted.
Could Hilton — currently with about 28% of counted votes — face a real challenge from Steyer for the second place spot? It would be tough, experts say.
“I think he’s fairly comfortable,” Stutzman said of Hilton. Unless voter turnout is markedly higher than expected, he doesn’t see an easy path for Steyer coming back, especially because it would require Steyer resoundingly beating Becerra in the late vote.
Hilton currently leads the contest by about 100,000 votes over Becerra, but has an edge of about 400,000 votes over Steyer. Pollsters expect Becerra to make the runoff, given California’s strong blue slant and recent surveys.
Ballots in California are accepted for up to seven days after the election if they are postmarked on or before election day, and the official count can take up to 30 days.
Voting by mail (or drop box) has become the favorite method among Californians since universal vote-by-mail was implemented in 2021: more than 80% of ballots have since come from absentee, or vote-by-mail ballots, according to the California Voter Foundation’s analysis of the last four vote counts in California. In 2022’s primary it was as high as 91%.
“We need to accept the first ballots that are counted aren’t always those that are most representative,” said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. But that’s not a sign that elections are rigged or fraudulent, she said, despite some politicians peddling such falsehoods.
“We allow people lots of different avenues to vote, and as a result it takes longer to count up all the votes,” Levinson said. “That’s how it should be. … It’s an argument in favor of making sure the process runs correctly — not quickly.”
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