Marc Short is chairman of Advancing American Freedom.
New York real estate developer Donald Trump has openly courted the farm vote every time he’s run for president. Green hats emblazoned with “Make Our Farmers Great Again” were commonplace at Trump rallies during all three of his national campaigns. In the 2024 election, American farmers again supported him.
But things are different now. President Trump’s trade policies have punched farmers in the mouth, and this time there’s no global pandemic to blame.
Last year, America’s crop farmers lost $34.6 billion, and farm bankruptcies surged to numbers not seen since 2020, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. This year, 70 percent of farmers surveyed claim they cannot afford all the fertilizers they need. Fuel costs continue to rise as the Iran conflict remains unresolved and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Ninety-four percent of farmers reported that their financial situation has “worsened or remained the same” since last year. Fifteen thousand farms closed in 2025 alone. The New York Times chronicles the closing of American family farms: Bankruptcies were up 55 percent in 2024, 46 percent in 2025 and 70 percent by May of this year.
Republicans who continue to ignore this reality do so at their peril.
The president’s global trade war resulted in China slashing its imports of American crops and livestock by 63 percent. Rumored Chinese concessions from the Trump administration would do little to help farmers dig out of that deep of a hole.
Input costs have increased as well. Prices for some fertilizers are up 47 percent year over year. Fuel, which was relatively affordable until the Iran conflict, is now much more expensive. America’s farmers are caught between a trade war with China and a burning conflict with Iran.
Trade wars, waged with little to no coherent strategy, have left the largest buyersof American produce — Mexico, Canada, and China — looking elsewhere. From the end of May through November last year, China didn’t purchase a single American soybean, choosing to do business with Brazil instead. Meanwhile, American agricultural exports to Canada decreased by more than $1 billion, in part because of Canadian boycotts of American products.
States whose economies rely on agriculture are struggling, and it’s showing up in the polls.
In Ohio, JD Vance’s old Senate seat and the governor’s mansion are considered toss-ups. Polls for the Senate race in North Carolina, another agriculture-heavy state, show Democratic former governor Roy Cooper with a healthy lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. Iowa, another state synonymous with agriculture, is currently rated as likely Republican for its open Senate seat but polls continue to show a tight race and the Democrat winning the governor’s race.
The Senate GOP’s top super PAC is spending $79 million in Ohio, $71 million in North Carolina and $29 million in Iowa. These investments mean that Republican political strategists acknowledge the need to bolster these candidates, and that this money can’t be spent on other competitive races.
The White House is paying attention, distributing $12 billion last December in one-time payments to farmers who suffered “unfair market disruptions.” Whether the White House will move beyond bailouts and toward substantial policy shifts to help American farmers remains unlikely — especially since Trump signaled his opposition to widely popular proposals that would ban the Chinese Communist Party from buying American farmland and land near military bases.
Political coalitions are not set in stone; they must be won in every cycle. When politicians break their promises or fail to deliver, they will face retribution at the ballot box. American voters don’t have much patience for excuses. They have even less patience for a flailing economy.
Trump’s global war on trade risks upending the Republican coalition across the heartland. Continuing to ignore the plight of farmers is a risk Republicans shouldn’t tolerate heading into November.
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