Where are you going on vacation this summer? A durable peace agreement might emerge in the Middle East soon, but flight schedules could remain disrupted through next winter. You probably won’t be flying to Dubai or elsewhere in the United Arab Emirates anytime soon; the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has made these previously popular destinations no-go areas. Maybe not to Canada, either. Citing higher fuel costs, Air Canada has cut flights between New York City’s Kennedy International Airport and Toronto, as well as Montreal. OK, there might be some hard feelings, too, as Canadian tourists, angered about President Trump’s treatment of their nation, are avoiding the United States.
Even at home, your flight choices are a bit more limited, because major airlines have reduced the number of available seats, according to Cirium, an aviation analytics company: United has slashed seats by 4.8 percent. The demise of the low-fare Spirit Airlines — a direct consequence of higher fuel costs — took an additional 2 to 3 percent of available seats with it.
Whatever flight you book, fares are going to be more expensive because airlines must recoup the higher fuel costs they’ve absorbed since the start of the war. Travelers may choose to not to fly at all, leading the airlines to cut even more flights. Based on current conditions, U.S. airlines will probably pay some $25 billion more for jet fuel in 2026 than they expected to. That’s more than what the industry earned in 2024 and 2025 combined.
It could be a bummer of a summer. And fall. And winter. Even if the oil starts flowing from the Middle East this month, jet fuel supply constraints and price increases will most likely extend into 2027.
What makes the situation worse is that airlines waste fuel every day, and they’ve been doing it for decades. They schedule flights in a way that adds time to flights and complexity to the air traffic control system. The Federal Aviation Administration has its own problems, thanks to a shortage of air traffic controllers and outdated technology. Well before the war with Iran started, Newark and LaGuardia airports had to reduce their summer schedules because they didn’t have enough controllers; more recently the F.A.A. ordered carriers to eliminate more than 300 daily flights at O’Hare Airport in Chicago as a safety measure. Summer is also hurricane season, when storms regularly snarl the system
Carriers in Europe are facing a different problem: fuel shortages on the order of about 500,000 barrels daily. Europe relies on the Persian Gulf for roughly half of its jet fuel imports. Europe’s remaining inventories, two to three weeks’ worth, are well short of the norm for its summer flying needs. European carriers are reducing their flights by 5 percent to compensate. A number of low-fare, long-haul carriers such as Norse Atlantic have canceled some trans-Atlantic routes outright. Some Asia-Pacific carriers are making cuts, too.
U.S. airlines might be able to offset some of their higher fuel costs if they were more efficient, but airlines continue to schedule and fly more hours and use more fuel than necessary, every flight, every day. They continue to schedule flights using block time, which adds extra minutes to every flight, so that the carriers can claim to be more punctual than they really are. Using block time also means that air traffic control isn’t adequately prepared for what’s coming into airports at any given minute, leading to delays. Result? Even before the war, about one in every five flights arrived more than 15 minutes late.
The chaos of summer travel may at least provide cover for Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy to address the inadequacies of the entire airline system. Better airline service for voters should be one goal that our divided Congress can share. Making our airlines more punctual not only could save fuel and operating costs but also would deliver a better passenger experience.
We didn’t need a foreign war — and more expensive fuel and fares — to demonstrate that our passenger airline operations are inefficient and unpleasant. But we can turn one part of this crisis into an opportunity to improve.
R. Michael Baiada is a former United Airlines pilot. Robert W. Mann Jr. is a former airline executive officer.
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