California voters are choosing their next governor, a leader who will inevitably star in national politics at the helm of the country’s biggest blue state that has steered the Democratic resistance against President Donald Trump.
But the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has been bizarre.
The state’s A-list Democratic politicians decided not to run, leaving behind a long list of lower-profile candidates and a sliver of a chance for Republicans to shut them out of the general election. Then came a scandal that knocked out the top Democratic candidate, making the race anyone’s game.
Now, a Democrat who had been trailing for months is leading the pack. Still, Democratic voters have been slow to return their mail ballots, a sign political strategists say means they’re still figuring out which candidate has the best shot.
“It’s pretty clear they don’t want to make a mistake, and that mistake would be not consolidating behind a front-runner,” said Rob Stutzman, a GOP consultant in California who is not affiliated with any of the gubernatorial campaigns.
Why is the gubernatorial primary so unwieldy?
For starters, California uses a “jungle primary” system. Under it, all primary candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party. Then, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. This means primary candidates are competing against everyone in their race, not just those from the same party. The more crowded the field gets, the tougher it is to garner support because votes are split among a higher number of candidates.
Why no big names?
All of the big-name Democrats who would have had an easy in with voters opted out of this year’s race — including former vice president Kamala Harris, California Attorney General Rob Bonta and Sen. Alex Padilla.
Without them, the Democratic field became a cluster of candidates without significant political brands: former congressman Eric Swalwell, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, former congresswoman Katie Porter, former health secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and the list went on. They struggled to excite voters and establish a lead.
Swalwell had started to pull away when he dropped out of the race in April after allegations of sexual assault and misconduct. Once again, the race was wide open — and finally getting real attention.
“Nobody on earth, at least in California, was thinking about the governor’s race, and that scandal placed it front and center,” said Brian Brokaw, a Democratic strategist who is not working with any of the governor candidates.
With no Democrat gaining significant support, Democratic voters and strategists feared that the two Republican candidates in the race, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, would advance to the general election because polls showed them in the lead.
Do Republicans still have a chance?
Democrats woke up in time for the primary, Stutzman said, realizing they needed to coalesce behind the top-polling candidates to prevent a GOP shutout. Distressed by that scenario in a Democratic stronghold, the party’s voters have been paying close attention to polling as they decide their vote.
“So they may like Katie Porter or Matt Mahan the most, but what’s most important to them is not to have a Republican governor,” Stutzman said.
Given that posture, it is less likely that both Republicans make it to November now — but there is a good chance that one of them will appear on the general-election ballot.
Hilton has consolidated Republican support, due in large part to an early April endorsement from Trump. Polls still show him in the top tier of candidates, while Bianco has fallen out.
If Hilton advances to the general election, he will almost certainly lose because California’s Democratic voters will unite behind the party’s candidate, strategists said. California has not elected a Republican governor in 20 years.
Who are the Democratic front-runners?
Following Swalwell’s exit, the crowded field scrambled to siphon his support, especially the candidates who were just behind him in the polls, Porter and Steyer. But the boost seems to have actually gone somewhere few expected: Becerra.
After lagging with single digits in the polls and little attention to his campaign for months, Becerra leapfrogged his opponents to become the leading Democratic candidate. Voters probably began to see Becerra as their most viable choice in the face of all the chaos the race had already brought, namely Swalwell’s scandal-plagued exit.
“All of that led to many voters feeling like they just need to tag home base and go with the safe bet,” Brokaw said.
Of all the candidates, Becerra has the most political experience. Before serving as the health secretary under President Joe Biden, he was California’s attorney general and before that, a congressman for more than two decades. In a race filled with candidates voters are not enthusiastic about, Stutzman described Becerra as “the least unlikable guy with a résumé.”
His closest competitor is Steyer — a billionaire who is running as the progressive, populist candidate. Steyer has spent more than $215 million of his own money on his campaign, arguing that self-funding means he can avoid the influence of groups that want something in return. But his wealth has proved to be a sticking point for Californians.
“There’s just a little bit of a psychological disconnect for a lot of voters about the billionaire who is championing all these progressive policies,” Brokaw said. “A candidate like that will always face doubt and skepticism about authenticity.”
In May, Becerra was in the lead with 25 percent of support, according to a poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley published Friday. The findings put Hilton in second with 21 percent but showed Steyer “within striking distance” at 19 percent.
When will the primary results be available?
California could come out of Tuesday without knowing who will be on the general-election ballot, including for the gubernatorial race. In past elections, the state has taken days and sometimes weeks to finish counting ballots.
Though Becerra and Hilton are poised to be the top two vote-getters, there is still a chance Steyer — or even someone else — could take second place.
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