Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas in three decades.
But on Tuesday in a primary runoff, Republican voters nominated a scandal-plagued candidate who has President Donald Trump’s support but divides the rest of the party.
And earlier this year, Democrats nominated a young, charismatic seminarian who many Democrats say has the ability to unite his party and win over disaffected Trump voters.
Winning in Texas would go a long way for Democrats in their long shot to take control of the Senate.
“Texas is a huge political battleground this year,” said Louis Jacobson, a nonpartisan political analyst and chief author of the forthcoming 2026 Almanac of American Politics. “If Democrats can win this, chances are pretty good they’ll take the Senate.”
Here’s what’s going on.
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Why Democrats think they have a chance to win
Democrats have come close to winning a Senate race in Texas before.
This time, their hope stems from how voters feel about the Republican candidate. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn (R) on Tuesday, ousting a mainstream leader in the Republican Party.
Paxton framed himself as an unapologetic, stick-it-to-the-liberals Trump ally. “Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,” Trump wrote on social media.
But Paxton carries baggage from many past scandals. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption allegations and acquitted by the state Senate. He was also the subject of an FBI investigation related to bribery allegations (the investigation was eventually dropped). And he’s acknowledged to his staff that he had an extramarital affair.
“There’s still a good chance he would lose,” Cornyn told supporters of Paxton’s chances in November.
The Democratic candidate, James Talarico, is trying to present a stark contrast to his opponent. The 37-year-old Presbyterian seminarian holds liberal views and has said Democrats need to welcome independents and Republicans to their party by engaging them on religion and on cultural topics that Democrats in Texas tend to stay away from. “It’s not about left versus right,” he told voters. “It’s about top versus bottom.”
Democrats’ hope is that Paxton keeps Republican voters at home while Talarico spurs a huge turnout within his party.
“Paxton is certainly demoralizing to some Republicans who don’t want to defend him,” said Texas-based Democratic pollster Nancy Zdunkewicz.
But it’s going to be an expensive, negative race
After Talarico campaigned this month alongside former president Barack Obama, Republicans have been trying to frame him as too liberal, seizing on a comment he once made that “God is nonbinary” and the fact that before this race, the state representative was virtually unknown. Paxton has falsely described Talarico as vegan, because of a campaign pledge years ago to buy only vegan products. (“I’ve been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment,” Talarico responded.)
To win, strategists on both sides say Talarico will have to forcefully push back on the framing that he’s a liberal, defend or moderate some of his liberal policies and try not to alienate his own voters.
That’s where money comes in. Strategists expect the race to be extraordinarily expensive. But it’s an open question how much outside money there will be for Paxton, whom the Republican establishment strongly dislikes.
Disaffected Trump voters could be the swing vote
Earlier this year in Fort Worth, a Democrat won a special election for a state Senate seat in a district that had previously voted for Trump by 17 percentage points.
Latino voters there in particular swung away from Trump, said Manny Garcia, the former head of Texas’s Democratic Party, as nationwide polls show Latino voters more broadly softening against Trump.
The last time Democrats got close to winning a Senate race was also in a midterm election when Trump was president. In 2018, Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) came within three percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz (R).
Now, Democrats are hoping that Trump’s endorsement of Paxton carries much less significance among Texas voters, especially Hispanic men.
“In focus groups, there’s so many Trump voters who are just so disappointed and want some guardrails around him like the first time he was in office,” Zdunkewicz said. “That’s the big difference between now and 2018 that could make this an even bigger year for Democrats.”
Texas can be seen as a microcosm of how voters feel about Trump
Texas is one of the most diverse states in the nation, and it’s big enough to be a country in and of itself. It has the largest Black population in the country, a huge Latino population, a fast-growing Asian population and a sizable White population. It’s got massive metropolitan areas, suburbs galore and rural areas.
It is among top states on wind power and solar power, and its governor is lobbying for AI data centers to come to the state. And, living in a border state, Texans have felt the effects of Trump’s tariffs and his mass deportation campaign.
“Every single issue, whether it’s cost or affordability concerns, or corruption or the chaos of immigration enforcement, it’s happening in Texas and happening in a bigger way,” Garcia said.
But the math is still very hard for Democrats
Texas is a Republican state and everything needs to line up just right to make a change. Even on a good day in Texas for the Democratic Party, Zdunkewicz said, at least 53 percent of voters identify as Republican.
“To win,” she said, “you need every single Democrat to vote for you, you need 80 percent of independents and a couple of Republicans.”
Democrats think that’s finally possible with the matchup between Talarico and Paxton.
The post Why Texas suddenly has such a competitive Senate race appeared first on Washington Post.
