Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican Senate primary in his state Tuesday night, ousting incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
Paxton excited President Trump and his MAGA base. But many Republican leaders and strategists are worried.
Few politicians have garnered as much scandal in Texas as Paxton. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled state House on multiple charges of abuse of office. His own senior staffers reported him to the FBI, alleging he illegally used his position to help a prominent donor. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year on “biblical grounds,” citing adultery.
And yet, Paxton has repeatedly come out on top. The state Senate acquitted him on all charges, and the FBI dropped its investigation. Paxton won reelection for his current job twice and defeated Cornyn, one of the best-funded Republicans in the country, with a fraction of the resources and institutional support.
Senate Republicans are now nervous they’ll have to pour boatloads of cash into the race to prop up Paxton against state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic candidate in the race. Talarico has blown past fundraising records for a contest that is likely to break spending records.
Who is Ken Paxton?
Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015 and has used the office to aggressively push conservative policy. He sued the Biden administration more than 100 times over issues ranging from Democrats’ climate and infrastructure legislation to the former president’s immigration enforcement policy.
He led the 2020 lawsuit against Pennsylvania and other swing states that voted for Biden that year in an attempt to overturn the election. The Supreme Court threw that lawsuit out, but it helped endear Paxton to Trump, who would later give Paxton a much coveted endorsement that all but sealed the primary victory.
The attorney general’s position in Texas is not only a powerful job, but it is also a valuable political launchpad. Paxton is only the third Republican to hold the office since Reconstruction. The others: Gov. Greg Abbott and Cornyn.
What are his scandals?
The state House impeached Paxton in 2023 on overwhelmingly bipartisan grounds, with 60 Republicans joining 61 Democrats. Only 21 Republicans voted against impeachment charges.
The charges stemmed from his relationship with Nate Paul, a real estate developer and political donor. Paxton allegedly ordered his employees to improperly intervene in Paul’s legal troubles. Paul allegedly provided Paxton free services including a home renovation and a job for a woman with whom Paxton was allegedly having an extramarital affair. Paxton was also charged with retaliating against whistleblowers on his staff who had reported his conduct to the FBI in 2020.
Paxton was tried on 16 charges in the Senate, which acquitted him on all of them. His wife, Sen. Angela Paxton, was part of the Senate jury, though she was not allowed to vote.
The Justice Department continued investigating the allegations made by his senior staff to the FBI but closed its investigation at the end of the Biden administration.
Paxton was also indicted on felony securities fraud charges just after becoming attorney general in 2015. He was charged, as a state senator, with defrauding his fellow lawmakers by encouraging them to invest in Servergy, a tech company where he was secretly making a commission on their investments. He agreed to settle the case in 2024, paying $300,000 in restitution, though he never admitted to any wrongdoing. That case was unrelated to his impeachment.
Why are Senate Republicans worried?
Campaigns are extremely expensive in Texas. Its more than 31 million residents are spread over an area larger than France.
The state has multiple major urban areas, including Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth, which rank among the country’s costliest media markets.
Why is Paxton not worried?
Paxton and his allies have been dismissing concerns over his ability to win in a general election for months, saying he has already proved himself capable of doing so.
In 2022, Paxton faced a primary challenge from former land commissioner George P. Bush. Bush, with the backing of his family’s political dynasty and former White House chief of staff James Baker, pitched himself as a less beleaguered alternative to Paxton who could more easily win in a general election. That race also went to a runoff. Paxton won.
Then he beat Democratic candidate Rochelle Garza by just under 10 percentage points in the general election.
Do Democrats have a shot?
Democrats are very keen on flipping the state, which has eluded them for more than 30 years. They have insisted, despite numerous losses, that their biggest problem is turnout, rather than voters’ conservative bent.
That argument has helped past statewide candidates attract tens of millions of dollars in donations from around the country, particularly when up against nationally known Republicans like Sen. Ted Cruz.
Talarico is already beating past fundraising records, raising more than $27 million in the first three months of the year. That’s more than any other Senate candidate has ever raised at that point in an election year.
Cornyn is a prodigious fundraiser and had appeal among centrist voters, according to polls, giving Senate Republicans hope he could better fend off Talarico on his own. But without him, the party could find itself diverting millions of dollars to defend Paxton. The last Senate race cost Cruz more than $75 million.
Meanwhile, Republicans are bracing for expensive races to hold on to seats in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio while also trying to flip Democratic seats in Michigan and Georgia.
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