The nationwide redistricting battle that erupted last year has evolved into a forever war.
Politicians, no longer content to leave elections to chance, are working with increased precision to choose their voters, with plans to recalibrate as often as every two years.
“This gerrymandering arms race is poised to turn into a nuclear war,” said Dave Wasserman, senior elections analyst with Cook Political Report.
Extreme gerrymanders could soon be even more extreme. California Democrats could eliminate every Republican in the state’s House delegation, giving them a 52-0 map. Republicans could get rid of nearly every Democrat in Texas.
The potential result? A congressional map that looks more like a presidential map, with winner-take-all elections in many states. That could increase the chances for minority rule and further divide an already polarized country.
As President Donald Trump insists Republicans are “entitled” to more seats and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) declares “maximum warfare” over maps, both parties are preparing to exploit opportunities to give themselves more seats. They’re twisting districts into odd shapes that string together voters from faraway regions in a way that “gets away from what representation is supposed to be about,” said Sean Trende, senior election analyst for RealClearPolitics.
“The whole point of districts is saying that area matters and place matters, and we’re just breaking that,” Trende said.
None of this is normal. States long stuck to a tradition of redrawing their lines at the start of each decade after receiving census data showing how populations had shifted. Trump last year told Republican-led states to ditch that practice and carve up their states to their advantage ahead of the midterms. Democrats tried to match them but ran into obstacles.
Last month, Republicans won a new chance to draw seats in their favor at the last minute when the Supreme Court hollowed out a central provision of the Voting Rights Act.
The decision “couldn’t come at a worse time because the parties are so polarized and the parties are treating every change in election law as if it’s existential,” said Nathaniel Persily, a law professor at Stanford and an elections law expert.
Republicans currently hold a tiny 217-212 House majority and face a difficult political environment. A handful of seats could make the difference in deciding who controls the House for the last two years of Trump’s second term.
This new approach to redistricting will allow partisans to scrutinize data after each election so they can fine-tune their gerrymanders to ensure they keep working for them.
“All this just further alienates Americans from democracy and makes them feel even more that the process is rigged and manipulated,” said New York University law professor Richard Pildes.
The situation could lead to one party controlling Congress even if it loses the national popular vote by five percentage points or more. That would spark “legitimacy problems,” Trende said.
Here’s a look at where the gerrymandering fights stand and what’s in store.
Republicans have gained an edge in 15 districts and could get more soon
Republicans have given themselves more favorable lines in 15 districts since last year across seven states — Alabama, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas.
They’re working on new maps in Louisiana and South Carolina that would be likely to give them one more in each state.
They’ve taken extreme measures in some instances to ensure they can get new maps. In Alabama and Louisiana, they postponed primaries at the last moment, even though thousands of mail ballots had already been cast in Louisiana.
Democrats have gained an advantage in six districts for 2026
Democrats have had much less success.
They responded to Trump early on by persuading California voters to suspend the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission to draw five districts in Democrats’ favor.
They tried to do the same in Virginia. Voters agreed to the plan to give Democrats as many as four more seats, but the state Supreme Court nullified the map.
The Democrats gained an advantage in another district because of a Utah court ruling, bringing their national total to six.
Both sides are likely to seek new maps after the midterms
Republicans and Democrats are gearing up for new redistricting fights for 2028.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has called a special legislative session for June so that GOP lawmakers can draw a new map that will give them one or more additional House seats in the 2028 elections. In Colorado, a group aligned with Democrats is trying to get a measure on the ballot this fall that would give them three more House districts.
And both sides are vying for more sway in statehouses across the country in hopes of adopting new maps that favor them or blocking their opponents from trying to give themselves more seats.
Those campaigns will intensify as 2030 approaches because every state will be required to draw a new map after the next census.
Republicans have opportunities across the country
Republicans have lots of places to go in their quest for more seats — starting in Mississippi.
A fresh target. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) promised in a recent radio interview to soon eliminate the seat of Rep. Bennie G. Thompson, the only Democratic House member from the state.
“The tenure of Congressman Bennie G. Thompson reigning terror on the 2nd Congressional District is over,” Reeves said. “It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of when.”
Thompson, the only Black member of the House from Mississippi, said he would fight back.
“In my state, African Americans are 38 percent of the population. We won’t sit idly by and allow that population to go unrepresented,” he said.
Redrawing what they redrew. Republicans have already engaged in one round of redistricting in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri and Texas but could pry more seats out of those states.
Trying again. Republican state lawmakers resisted redistricting in Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska and New Hampshire, and Trump’s allies see those as good places to go after the midterms. In Indiana, Trump-backed primary challengers this month defeated five GOP state senators who opposed redistricting — a result that delivered a message to Republicans well beyond the Hoosier State.
Reviving a fight. A court ordered a new map for Utah last year that is expected to give Democrats one of the state’s four districts this fall. Republicans are seeking ways to redraw the lines for 2028.
Democrats try to fight back
Democrats aren’t sitting idle.
California redux. California voters last year suspended the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission until the 2030 census, allowing Democrats to draw five more seats in their favor. State lawmakers could use that authority to give themselves an advantage in four more, setting the stage for them to potentially capture all 52 of the state’s congressional districts.
Ballot measures. A group aligned with Democrats is working to get measures on Colorado’s ballot this fall that could give their party three more seats in the 2028 election. Democratic officials in New Jersey and New York are also eyeing ballot measures. Meanwhile, a group is trying to undo the Republicans’ 2025 gerrymander in Missouri with a ballot measure this fall.
Trying again. Democrats put off redrawing maps in Illinois and Maryland over the past year but will face a new round of pressure to take up the issue next year. In Virginia, they got voter approval for a new map, but their plan was blocked by the state Supreme Court. They can pursue the idea again for 2028.
Finding new turf. Democrats are trying to gain control of all levers of government in Minnesota and Wisconsin and win supermajorities in Oregon and Washington so they can draw new maps. And if Democrats don’t win control of Wisconsin’s legislature, groups aligned with them can continue litigation aimed at getting the state’s liberal Supreme Court to approve a new map.
Isaac Arnsdorf contributed to this report.
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