House primaries in a half-dozen states on Tuesday will gauge the direction of both parties as well as the durability of President Trump’s political power, despite his persistently sinking popularity. The outcomes — in Alabama, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and the presidential battlegrounds of Georgia and Pennsylvania — will also signal some of what is to come in the November general elections and what promises to be an utterly jumbled race for the White House after that.
The most-watched House contest on the docket is in Kentucky, where Representative Thomas Massie is fighting to fend off a challenger backed by the president.
The most significant race, though, might be some eight hours to the east — where Democrats in Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District are set to pick the person who will run against a first-term Republican incumbent. It is one of the vanishingly few true swing districts in the country, and is in what undoubtedly will be one of the most important states in 2028.
Here’s a look at Tuesday’s most interesting House primaries.
A test of Trump’s power — again
In the most recent chapter of his yearslong revenge tour, Mr. Trump started May with a win in Indiana. This past weekend, he notched another in Louisiana. Next up: the Fourth Congressional District of Kentucky.
Mr. Massie, the libertarian-leaning, M.I.T.-educated engineer whom Mr. Trump called a “moron” at this year’s National Prayer Breakfast, was one of only two Republicans who voted no on the president’s “big, beautiful bill,” led the push for the release of the Epstein files and has openly opposed the conflict in Iran.
Ed Gallrein, a farmer, a retired Navy SEAL and the “warm body to beat Massie,” in the words of Mr. Trump, left the Republican Party and registered as an independent in 2016 after Mr. Trump became the G.O.P. nominee. He re-registered as a Republican in 2021 is now running for Congress “shoulder to shoulder” with the president.
On Saturday on social media, Mr. Trump called Mr. Massie “a disloyal, ungracious, and sanctimonious FOOL.”
Polls say this one is close.
A rare swing district
In Pennsylvania’s Seventh District, where Representative Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican, won in 2024 by just 4,000 votes, four Democrats are vying for the right to try to re-flip the seat from red to blue. And what happens in this Lehigh Valley-based district on Tuesday could help determine whether Democrats reclaim control of the House come November.
Lamont McClure is a lawyer and former county executive who is getting a mysterious boost from an unexpected (and unwanted) source. Carol Obando-Derstine is an engineer who was a senior adviser to former Senator Bob Casey and is endorsed by Emily’s List. Ryan Crosswell is a Marine and former federal prosecutor who resigned last year from the Justice Department and is endorsed by VoteVets.
And Bob Brooks is a retired firefighter, the union president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association, a landscaper, a snow plow driver and a high school baseball coach. He has been endorsed by the seldom-seen combination of Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary.
In sum, this is a field that’s especially emblematic of Democrats’ range of ideas about how to win back voters they’ve lost. The differences between the candidates fall not so much along the lines of policy as persona and posture.
One of the most Democratic districts in the country
In Pennsylvania’s Third District, where Democrats routinely capture around 90 percent of the presidential vote and winning the Democratic primary is essentially the same as getting elected to Congress, the competitive tussle in Philadelphia has turned into an epicenter of intraparty fissures on immigration and Israel. It is also a bit of a test of the power of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a potential candidate for president in 2028.
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez has endorsed Chris Rabb, a state representative, a democratic socialist and the most left-leaning of the candidates — a group that also includes Sharif Street, a state senator and a former chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party; and Dr. Ala Stanford, a pediatric surgeon and the founder of Philadelphia’s Black Doctors COVID-19 Consortium.
Another Kentucky race to watch
Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District, centered in Lexington, is open because of Representative Andy Barr’s decision to run for Senate. In the midterms during the first Trump administration, Amy McGrath, a Democrat, fell by barely more than three percentage points — and the G.O.P. headwinds could be even worse this time around.
Topping the crowd of Democrats running are Zach Dembo, a former Navy J.A.G. officer, federal prosecutor and aide to Gov. Andy Beshear; and Cherlynn Stevenson, a former state representative.
Redistricting confusion
The primaries in Alabama are on Tuesday. At least some of them. Any runoffs would be next month. But because of the nonstop redistricting fights in the states and in the courts, the governor decided that some other congressional primaries now are supposed to be in August. Will voters be confused? Angry? Both? Will turnout go down? Will it go up?
The post What to Know About Tuesday’s Most Interesting House Primaries appeared first on New York Times.
