Representative Thomas Massie has not encountered a truly competitive primary since he was first elected to represent Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District in 2012. That year, he faced six other contenders and won the primary with about 45 percent of the vote. This year, he is facing only one opponent: Ed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL whom President Trump has said he personally recruited in hopes of pushing out Mr. Massie.
Since the start of April, there have been seven publicly released polls in this race, with a range of results, from Mr. Massie leading by nine percentage points to Mr. Gallrein leading by eight. But Mr. Massie has not had a significant lead in a publicly released poll for more than a month.
Breaking poll results down by demographic groups can be problematic, as cross-tabs offer small sample sizes that are not weighted to be representative of the subgroups. But those numbers can offer a rough sketch of where each candidate might find strength.
Mr. Massie, who identifies with the more libertarian side of the Republican Party and has voiced disagreement with Mr. Trump on his handling of the Epstein files and Iran, appears to be doing well with younger and college-educated voters. Mr. Gallrein is supported by groups more traditionally aligned with Mr. Trump, like less-educated voters and evangelicals.
Turnout is low in most primaries — even ones with high national interest like this one — so the race will most likely come down to which candidate is able to inspire more of his base to head to the polls.
Caroline Soler is a Times researcher focused on collecting and analyzing polling and election data.
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