The crowd started trickling in to a mall on the outskirts of Bangkok around 7 a.m. on a recent Thursday. Hundreds of people showed up, most of them men. They were there to pick a card from a jar.
Draw a black card and go home free. Draw a red card and report for duty in Thailand’s military.
Patchaya Tharongphon, 23, a freelance event planner, was on edge. “I have a 1½-year-old daughter,” he said. “I would love to see her grow, not be away for two years.”
The military, along with the monarchy, is one of the most powerful institutions in Thailand. Its leadership has repeatedly intervened in politics by staging coups. The current form of the military draft, which is mandatory for men, has been in place for decades, and tens of thousands of recruits are conscripted every year.
But conscription remains one of the most divisive issues in Thailand, even though there has been a surge in nationalism following a war with Cambodia last year. On Tuesday, Thailand’s Constitutional Court is scheduled to deliver a ruling in a closely watched case about the validity of the law that governs the draft.
One way out of military service is for high school-aged boys to complete three years of defense training, which is held in specialized centers that can be hard for students to reach, particularly in rural areas. Most men become eligible for the draft when they turn 21. Health permitting, they can either volunteer or find themselves placed in a lottery that is held every year in April, before the Thai New Year.
At the mall outside Bangkok, the Central Westgate mall in Nonthaburi, Mr. Patchaya and the other men stepped forward one by one to learn their fates. Inside the jar were small tubes that resembled straws, each containing a card. After each draw, an officer pushed out the card, resulting in thunderous cheers or haunting groans from the families gathered on the sidelines.
Mr. Patchaya drew a red card. His next two years would be spent in the Thai Navy.
“If I do well, I might continue this path,” he said. “Might as well see this as a new opportunity.” His father pointed out that the steady job came with benefits for his young family.
Still, many who pulled red cards were visibly disappointed — one collapsed to the floor in dramatic despair, while some shouted in frustration. To many, it meant a career forcibly paused and a dream dimmed. Many who ended up with black cards threw their arms up in triumph.
Kraikitti Khawsumlee, 21, had a health exemption. He had a certificate that stated his “identity did not match his gender at birth,” meaning the authorities did not see him as a male.
To obtain the waiver, Mr. Kraikitti, who uses male pronouns but identifies as a woman, said that he had been interviewed by a social worker and a psychiatrist and had answered more than 500 questions over two days.
Wuthichai Sonthana, 23, was among those volunteering for enlistment, which significantly shortens the minimum required service time. For high school graduates, the term is halved from two years to one. Those with college degrees can serve only six months.
“I’d rather apply and get it over with,” Mr. Wuthichai said. “It will only be six months, then I will be free to move on with my life.”
Volunteer sign-ups have increased 22 percent over the past year, totaling nearly 50,000 men, according to the military. A sluggish economy is one reason behind the increase. A conscripted soldier earns roughly 11,000 baht, or about $340, a month, alongside food, accommodation and medical benefits.
“Both things came into play this year, patriotism and the economy,” said Analayo Korsakul, an independent military observer. For many recruits, it means “two years where you don’t have to worry about your financial security,” he said, adding, “You can enroll for further education and have a career for decades.”
But conscripts face severe risks. Amnesty International has reported routine hazing, such as beatings with combat boots and the butts of the guns, conscripts being forced to exercise until they collapse from exhaustion and mass sexual abuse being used as punishment. The International Federation for Human Rights has documented the deaths of 17 military cadets and conscripts from June 2015 to August 2024 because of torture or other mistreatment.
Military authorities have said that they are tightening training regulations, including prohibiting excessive punishment, and that they have barred any disciplinary action that endangers the life or safety of recruits. In 2023, Thailand started enforcing a law that allows the prosecution of military personnel who violate the rights of conscripts in civilian courts.
Critics of the draft also say that thousands of conscripts end up being assigned as personal servants for high-ranking officers and are exploited as free labor for military-owned enterprises like golf courses.
“We have to admit there are negative sides; some accidents did occur,” said Col. Chatchawarn Angwanisakul, who was in charge of the draft lottery at the mall. “We are reforming, slowly. But we have started, and that’s good.”
Yet, the military’s budget remains confidential.
“We are hoping there is more transparency, more efficiency in how they carried on the work,” said Chayaphon Satondee, a member of Parliament from the opposition People’s Party. “There’s no formula for the number of conscripts we need per year.”
By replacing conscription with voluntary enlistment, advocates of ending the draft say, the military would be able to cultivate a lean, specialized force.
It would also add a touch of stability to the economy, they say. Thailand has an aging society, so conscription is a hit to economic productivity, Mr. Analayo said.
At the draft lottery at the mall, Kitinan Binkareem, 22, an animal caretaker at a zoo, appeared stoic.
“I am OK with either outcome,” he said. “I see this as God’s way to show me my life direction: continue as animal caretaker or military officer.”
He drew a black card. He was free.
Muktita Suhartono reports on Thailand and Indonesia. She is based in Bangkok.
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