The author of a definitive examination of the Iranian Revolution is warning that Donald Trump’s unprovoked waron Iran was not only a catastrophic strategic failure — it has also exposed America and its allies to a terrifying new vulnerability that terrorist groups and hostile regimes now know how to easily exploit. In a column for the New York Times, Scott Anderson, author of “King of Kings: The Iranian Revolution: A Story of Hubris, Delusion and Catastrophic Miscalculation,” argues that the Pentagon’s Operation Epic Fury should be relabeled “Operation Colossal Blunder.” Rather than sparking a popular uprising against Tehran’s regime or forcing its capitulation, the American and Israeli bombing campaign backfired spectacularly,” Anderson wrote, Instead, Iran discovered it could weaponize its geographic advantage by threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz — a vital global shipping lane — and send the world economy into chaos. “There are now only two outcomes to the conflict: either the kind of wholesale destruction of Iran that Mr. Trump posited, or a settlement that will leave the government intact and empowered, and a blustering American president humiliated,” Anderson wrote. The standoff has revealed a devastating reality about modern warfare. While critical sites like the White House can be made drone-proof through defensive measures, large-scale defensive shielding is impossible — as Israel has discovered with its much-vaunted Iron Dome air defense system, which has proven repeatedly vulnerable to Iranian attacks. Trump’s demonstration of American military limits has effectively handed hostile actors a blueprint for future blackmail. Every geographically strategic chokepoint in the world — the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Gibraltar, and even airspace over New York — is now vulnerable to attack by any hostile force capable of building a weaponized drone and willing to accept the consequences.
According to Anderson, “Alarmist? Think of some of the apocalyptic regimes or murderous guerrilla groups of the recent past — the Baader-Meinhof Gang in West Germany, or the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, or bin Laden’s Al Qaeda — and imagine what they might have done with a $2,000 weaponized drone.”
The conflict has fundamentally altered the calculus of global power, giving small actors outsized leverage over world commerce and security.
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