A nationwide gerrymandering tug of war moves this week to the Florida Legislature and Virginia’s top court, the latest fronts in a lengthy battle Democrats and Republicans have fought to a rough draw so far.
In Florida, state lawmakers are heading into a special session on Tuesday to consider redrawing their congressional map, among other matters. The scope of the effort remains foggy.
In Virginia, the state’s Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a case on Monday that could determine whether Democrats will be allowed to put in effect a gerrymander of the state’s congressional map. Last week, Virginia voters narrowly approved a referendum allowing for the Democratic gerrymander, but Republicans are challenging the legality of the measure.
The states are part of a coast-to-coast chess match that President Trump and fellow Republicans started in Texas, where state lawmakers redrew the map in the G.O.P.’s favor last year.
The parties are also watching for a Supreme Court decision that could upend the national gerrymandering battle.
Here’s what to know:
Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis, Republican of Florida, has called state lawmakers to Tallahassee this week to consider redrawing the state’s House map. His party holds supermajorities in the Legislature.
But as of Sunday night, Mr. DeSantis had not unveiled a map for lawmakers to consider. Members of the state’s congressional delegation have expressed concern that a new, aggressively gerrymandered map aimed at creating new Republican-leaning districts could spread Republican voters too thinly and put some incumbents in danger of losing their seats.
“In a year where the party’s facing headwinds, it seems potentially reckless,” said former Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Republican from South Florida.
Even if Florida does move to draw a new map, it may face a steep challenge in court. In 2010, voters in Florida passed the Fair Districts amendments, which were intended to ban partisan gerrymandering in the state.
Mr. DeSantis has pointed to a perceived census undercount as a rationale to draw new district lines.
Virginia
The ballot measure approved last week by Virginia voters empowers the state’s Democratic-led General Assembly to draw a House map that could deliver Democrats up to four more seats in the midterms.
The referendum was held after the Virginia Supreme Court fielded legal challenges objecting to the timing of the vote and the wording of the ballot question. The court wrote that it had “grave concern” about the process, but it opted to wait until after the referendum to hear arguments.
Oral arguments in one of the cases are scheduled for Monday.
It is unclear how the court will rule, said Justin Levitt, a law professor and redistricting expert at Loyola Marymount University. But he said courts are typically reluctant to reverse decisions that voters have made at the ballot box.
“It’s a really bad idea to put the football down and then yank the football away,” Professor Levitt argued. “This is not a Charlie Brown comic.”
It has happened in Virginia before, though. In 1958, the Virginia Supreme Court reversed a referendum concerning bonds. (The case was recently revisited by The Cardinal News of Roanoke, Va.)
Although the court might be hesitant to reverse the referendum, it might have avoided weighing in before the vote as an expression of judicial restraint, said Rebecca Green, a co-director of the election law program at William & Mary University in Virginia.
The court’s view of the case might have been that “you only take it up if you have to,” Professor Green said.
The court is made up of seven justices who serve 12-year terms and are appointed by the General Assembly, which is currently controlled by Democrats.
The Supreme Court Question
The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a challenge to a provision of the Voting Rights Act that effectively prohibits racial gerrymandering. During oral arguments in October, the court appeared skeptical of the provision. If the court strikes it down, the move may spur a number of states to rush to redraw their maps in time for the midterm elections in November.
But it is unclear when the court will issue a ruling; its term ends in late June or early July. A late ruling might have little effect on the midterms because it would leave scant time for many states to draw new maps.
Patricia Mazzei contributed reporting.
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