I got to know U.N. Secretary General António Guterres through his work on climate. Throughout his tenure, he’s been an outspoken voice warning about the risks of rising emissions. But what struck me as the most relevant Future Proof insight during our fireside chat at the TIME100 Summit in New York this week wasn’t his climate warning but rather his concern over the breakdown of international norms.
“If international law is disrespected, if countries do not care about the norms they have themselves established, the result is the kind of chaos we are witnessing in so many parts of the world,” he said.
Energy depends on global supply chains, international cooperation, and the rule of law. Just a few years ago, all of that could be taken largely for granted, allowing most executives to focus on execution. But chaos, as Guterres described it, threatens all of those things and makes geopolitics an urgent concern. The Iran war and the crisis at the Strait of Hormuz is just the start.
The system that emerges from this moment is impossible to predict, but it’s safe to expect a few bedrock assumptions to change. After decades where efficiency has been prioritized above everything else, countries and companies may be increasingly willing to pay a premium for both locally sourced resources and redundancy. And, while energy markets have always been subject to government influence, the pressure on public officials to create policies that prioritize security over efficiency will only grow.
“Every nation should be looking at energy supply, energy security, food supply, food security,” Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, told me last week, ”in addition to military security.”
There’s no carpet quite like the TIME100 Red Carpet. Watch the 2026 TIME100 Red Carpet highlights here.
The idea of redundancy is nothing new. Countries stockpile oil in strategic reserves to protect from disruption. In electricity markets, power companies make a whole business around spare capacity for days when the power system is stressed.
But the scale under discussion today is something new entirely. New oil pipelines, for example, to avoid the Strait of Hormuz at the cost of tens of billions of dollars, have become a key talking point. Others are pushing for new mines in the U.S. to give the country access to critical minerals whose supply chains are currently controlled by China.
Importantly, the concern isn’t coming just from policymakers and a select few executives whose businesses would benefit. In my conversations with executives across a wide range of sectors, cost has become a secondary concern to securing supply, full stop. Boards are also electing members with geopolitical expertise. And banks and consulting firms are increasingly bulking up on geopolitical risk advisory. A 2024 EY survey found that more than 80% of boards were considering political risk in their strategy, up from 40% just three years prior. And the risks have only grown since then.
Inevitably, this means new demands on government. In our conversation, Dimon reiterated his call for the U.S. to embrace well designed industrial policy that will help protect the country. “National security is energy security,” he said.
The climate implications cut in different directions. Localized supply chains can reduce emissions from shipping products around the world many times over. On the other hand, redundancy means higher emissions as duplicative facilities and processes are built. Of course, as I’ve written about before, there is also the possibility that countries and companies turn to renewable energy because it helps avoid the mess of volatility altogether.
Climate advocates, Guterres included, like to emphasize that renewables are cheaper and faster. In an era of energy security concerns and a focus on redundancy, that may no longer be the best argument. “The sun will not disappear, the wind will not stop blowing,” said Guterres. “Every country that bases its energy in [renewable energy] will have safety in the use of energy.”
To get this story in your inbox, sign up to TIME’s Future Proof newsletter here.
The post The New Energy Priorities Emerging From This Moment of Chaos appeared first on TIME.
