President Donald Trump’s political team is defending its push to redraw congressional districts mid-decade, a break from historical practice that provoked partisan retaliation, cost hundreds of millions of dollars and, so far, has left Republicans no better positioned to retain the House.
Virginia voters set back Trump’s effort on Tuesday by approving a new map that shifts four seats toward Democrats. Some Republicans are now openly questioning the wisdom of opening this new front in partisan trench warfare since Trump pressured the Texas GOP last year to redistrict for a second time since the latest census.
The ensuing bouts between blue and red states have improved Democrats’ prospects in nine districts nationwide compared to eight or nine for Republicans, endangering GOP control of Congress as polls show public confidence declining in Trump’s handling of the economy and the war in Iran.
“When you go down the path of starting to do these things mid-decade, these are the kinds of outcomes you’re going to run into,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) said Wednesday. “Voters are going to decide, and they did last night, and obviously not in our favor.”
Trump’s political team defended the campaign in interviews, insisting the party will still benefit. Court challenges and another new map in Florida could yet yield gains, according to a senior member of Trump’s political operation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, citing lawsuits over some of the maps. The political team also said Republicans will benefit from trading some expensive races in Southern California and suburban Texas for cheaper districts in Missouri and North Carolina.
“What I expect is that when all of this redistricting sort of continues this cycle is that there will be a narrow advantage for Republicans,” James Blair, the White House deputy chief of staff who’s on leave to run Trump’s political operation, said Wednesday on CNN’s “Inside Politics With Dana Bash.” “Democrats started this, like, years ago, and they do it through the courts.”
Beyond the effect on this November’s midterms, Trump’s gambit took lawmakers’ efforts to entrench their own power to a new level, establishing a new normal in which parties gerrymander every cycle instead of once a decade.
Trump’s political operation denied firing the first shot, arguing that Democrats already were using litigation to win more favorable maps and benefited from the Voting Rights Act’s requirement to have some districts where most voters are minorities. The Supreme Court is widely expected to overturn that requirement this year, which Trump’s team argues will open the door to further Republican gains.
“Democrats have done it in so many other states for so long,” John Fredericks, a pro-Trump talk radio host who campaigned against the Virginia maps, said in an interview. “It’s now all-out partisan war. Best we fully engage now and get in the game.”
Democrats’ win in Virginia ramps up the pressure on Florida to deliver a counterpunch — but GOP gains there may be more modest than Trump’s team hoped.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is working on a proposed redraw of the House map there that could result in one to three more Republican districts, according to a person familiar with the conversations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private planning. Some Republicans had previously floated a four- or five-seat pickup, and right-wing influencers on Wednesday continued to suggest that was possible as a way to counter Virginia. Others worry that such an aggressive effort would jeopardize other districts in a tough election year and make redistricting more vulnerable to court challenges.
Leaders in the Florida House have said they will pass whatever map the governor produces, the person added. Another person familiar with the redistricting discussions said the state legislature seems “resigned” to passing DeSantis’s plan, “assuming the White House doesn’t have a concern about whatever the governor comes up with.”
Katie Betta, a spokesperson for the Florida Senate, said lawmakers expect the governor’s office will share its proposal by the end of the week.
Historically, state legislatures redraw congressional maps once a decade, following the 10-year census. Last year, Blair argued that Republicans could improve their footing in the midterms by drawing fresh maps in GOP-controlled states, arguing that the 2020 census overcounted several blue states and undercounted red states like Florida and Texas.
Blair, whose nickname from Trump is “Brilliant James,” became so strongly identified with the mid-decade redistricting campaign that it’s sometimes called “Blairymandering.”
“There has been a race to the bottom, but only on one side,” the senior member of Trump’s political team said. “What we set out to do was say, ‘We’re not going to take that anymore.’”
At Trump’s instigation, Texas Republicans passed a new map designed to put five more seats into GOP hands. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) responded with a ballot initiative to redraw that state’s lines for five more Democratic seats, with more than $129 million spent in favor and $35 million against.
Republicans picked up another likely seat in Ohio and made a second one redder. They added two more seats in Missouri and North Carolina, bringing the total to eight.
But in Indiana, Republican state senators bucked Trump and refused to adopt a map that would have eliminated the state’s two Democratic-held U.S. House seats. Trump’s team vowed to punish the Republican state senators who voted no.
In the state’s primary on May 5, Trump has endorsed challengers for eight of those lawmakers, and his political operation expects to win at least four of those races. The challenges received financial support from allies including Indiana Gov. Mike Braun, Sen. Jim Banks (R-Indiana) and the Club for Growth, but not Trump’s flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) proposed a map that would have eliminated his state’s one Republican-held seat. But the state Senate leader, also a Democrat, refused to go along with the plan, arguing that it could backfire in court and that gerrymandering was unhealthy for democracy.
“If you’re going to pick a fight, at least win it,” Ari Fleischer, White House press secretary for George W. Bush, said on X. “The other side will always fight back. All this was foreseeable and avoidable. We should not have started this fight.”
Trump adviser Chris LaCivita called Fleischer’s post “old line thinking — wait to get attacked. We don’t operate that way — we initiate contact.”
Virginia House Minority Leader Terry Kilgore (R) said national Republicans should have provided more resources. Democrats raised at least $65 million to support the state’s redistricting referendum, versus about $33 million raised by the opposition. The referendum passed with about 51.5 percent support, as the tally was still being finalized Wednesday.
“For 10 million or 20 million more dollars we could have been in play,” Kilgore said. “We were able to bring this close without money.”
Republicans took some encouragement from the narrow result in a state that Kamala Harris won by 5.8 points in 2024. Blair argued on CNN that if Republicans performed equivalently in November they would keep the House.
The senior member of Trump’s political team also said preliminary voting data showed the referendum prevailed by less than a point in three of the new left-leaning districts and failed by less than a point in the fourth — suggesting the new districts are not safe for Democrats.
“Virginia Democrats can’t redraw reality,” said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-North Carolina), chairman of the House GOP’s campaign arm, which did not spend money against the referendum. “This close margin reinforces that Virginia is a purple state that shouldn’t be represented by a severe partisan gerrymander.”
Democrats have likewise said Republicans may not win all five of the seats they’re counting on in Texas, based on the expectation that voters will reject the unpopular president’s party in November.
“Donald Trump and Republicans launched this gerrymandering war,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) told reporters Wednesday. “And we’ve made clear as Democrats that we’re going to finish it on behalf of the American people.”
Jeffries warned Republicans to expect “maximum warfare” if they proceed with redistricting in Florida.
Trump responded on Wednesday as he has to other elections he’s lost, calling the voting “RIGGED” and incorrectly calling the 2024 result in Virginia “a 50-50 split.”
“Let’s see if the Courts will fix this travesty of ‘Justice,’” he said on social media.
Trump’s political team holds out hope that Republicans could still gain the upper hand in court. The Supreme Court of Virginia is set to receive written briefs Thursday in one of three major lawsuits filed by Republicans against the referendum. The court has issued no timeline on when it will hold a hearing or act, but has signaled that it will expedite the case given the tight timelines for upcoming elections.
On Wednesday in Virginia, Tazewell County Circuit Judge Jack Hurley Jr., who had ruled against the referendum earlier this year, issued an injunction in another case to prevent the state from certifying the results of Tuesday’s election. Virginia state Attorney General Jay Jones (D) said he would immediately appeal to the state Court of Appeals. Hurley’s previous ruling had been stayed by the Virginia Supreme Court, allowing the vote to take place.
Republicans are also appealing a Utah court decision that resulted in another competitive seat for Democrats. And the Justice Department sued California to block its new map, so far without success.
Some House Republicans, including Wesley Hunt of Texas and Byron Donalds of Florida, who is running for governor, defended Trump on Wednesday for the redistricting push. Rep. Michael Lawler (R-New York), who holds one of the most hotly contested seats, accused New York Democrats of starting the fight in 2024 when they drew new maps because of a court order.
“It’s not beneficial to the American people,” Lawler said. “It should be stopped.”
Theodoric Meyer, Patrick Marley, Hannah Knowles, Gregory S. Schneider, Clara Ence Morse, Anna Liss-Roy and Emily Davies contributed to this report.
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