Democrats approved a new congressional map in Virginia on Tuesday, the latest skirmish in a redistricting arms race that will help determine which party wins control of Congress in the midterm elections.
Leading up to the Virginia vote, Republicans had amassed a cushion of newly drawn Republican seats through gerrymanders in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio. Democrats countered with a gerrymander of their own in California, and courts in Utah gave Democrats an unexpected new district in the deeply red Western state.
That meant that going into Tuesday night, there were between eight and nine new Republican-leaning districts, and six new Democratic-leaning districts, giving Republicans a two- to three-seat edge.
But Virginia’s approval of its new map could wipe that advantage out, creating up to four new Democratic-leaning seats. That leaves the national redistricting war at roughly a draw, with Democrats currently enjoying a small advantage. But Republicans could regain a slight edge if Florida chooses to redistrict (as Gov. Ron DeSantis has said it will).
Hanging over the gerrymandering drama is a looming decision at the Supreme Court over a critical provision in the Voting Rights Act. The court could rule in the next few weeks and strike down part of the civil rights law that effectively bans racial gerrymandering. If that happens, several Republican states, largely in the South, will have the opportunity to push through new maps ahead of the midterms.
Any slight edge heading into November could be critical for either party. Campaigning in swing congressional districts can cost millions of dollars, and Republicans hold control of the House of Representatives by just a handful of seats.
Nick Corasaniti is a Times reporter covering national politics, with a focus on voting and elections.
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