It’s that time of year once again, wherein I, a Floridian, wonder if this will be the summer that a major hurricane finally blows the roof off my home. Thankfully, according to the early outlook for the 2026 hurricane season, it seems like the complete and utter destruction of my home is (fingers crossed, knock on wood) not in the cards, as this season is slated to be slightly less apocalyptic.
According to researchers at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below average. The current projection calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major ones of Category 3 or higher. That’s a noticeable drop from what we’ve gotten used to in recent years.
Thanks for the Hurricane Murder, El Niño
The big shift is thanks in large part to a familiar weather phenomenon going on in the Pacific. El Niño is back, and as usual, it will do its job of chopping hurricanes to bits before they can become truly devastating storms. Using vertical wind shear, El Niño generates strong upper-level winds that can rip apart developing storms before they can fully organize into something that lays waste to a neighborhood. The stronger El Niño is, the harder it is for hurricanes in the Atlantic to get their act together.
Some models are even hinting at a “super” El Niño forming later in the summer, which could suppress storm activity even further. That’s terrific news, on paper. The reality of it is a little less optimistic. All it takes is one major hurricane slipping through El Niño’s wood chipper to cause incredible damage. Even with it potentially chopping up storms like never before, researchers say there is still around a 32 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the US coast, with slightly higher odds of Caribbean landfall.
Hurricane season runs from June through November, so if you live in an area that hurricanes like to batter, you still have time to stock up on supplies just in case your neck of the woods gets beaten up by any of the 2026 crop of storms, whose names have already been selected. Personally, I would find it humiliating if I were obliterated by Hurricane Heath. But if I were ripped to shreds by Hurricane Ronan, frankly, that’s a name so cool that I would consider it an honorable death.
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