It looks like Iran’s rulers have finally blinked — but that doesn’t mean they won’t try to weasel out of every promise they’re now making.
Tehran announced Friday that it’s opening the Strait of Hormuz, and supposedly even cooperating with US forces to sweep out all mines.
President Donald Trump says the regime has even agreed to end its quest for nuclear weapons and hand over its “nuclear dust” — nearly 1,000 pounds of highly-refined uranium now buried below various bunkers destroyed by American bombing last year.
But Trump knows Tehran has a long history of breaking its word — and it’s not even certain that the figures we’re negotiating with are the ultimate decision-makers.
Nor if Iran’s current leaders will be in charge next month: Regime factions will be a while realigning after US and Israel attacks slaughtered most of the top ranks — no one there or here knows how it’ll play out.
So the president is wise to keep the US blockade in effect, blocking Iranian oil exports, until Washington has concrete proof the controlling cabal is truly willing (in Trump’s words) “to do things today that they weren’t willing to do two months ago.”
Just for starters, it’ll take weeks to organize and deploy combat engineers to enter Iran, dig up that uranium, secure it and exfiltrate it.
All the while, at least some Iranian factions will be treating a continued ceasefire as simply a chance to reset — and maybe get back to mass executions of the protesters the regime was slaughtering before Epic Fury launched.
Remember: Even the Islamic Republic’s so-called moderates are still Islamic fundamentalists who despise America and the West and believe that lying to non-Muslim leaders is entirely moral.
Meanwhile, a lasting peace deal that ensures Iran can’t go nuclear requires a reliable process for monitoring compliance, including “inspect anywhere, anytime” rules.
Also a must-monitor: Bans on acquisition of new missiles and missile tech, lest Tehran again threaten the entire region.
Plus financial controls to prevent the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force from again fostering and commanding terrorists far outside Iran.
If the regime doesn’t agree to these terms, and institutionalize enforcement, its oil exports must remain blocked as the bombing resumes.
Every time Trump’s given Tehran a chance to avoid or end the war, it’s instead tried to string out talks instead of committing to peace; we’ll soon see if the Iranians have finally learned their lesson.
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