The war in Iran has forced airlines to raise prices and cut flights. But soon, some of them, particularly in Europe, could struggle to find enough jet fuel to put planes in the sky.
Ryanair, the low-cost airline that dominates flying within Europe, said this week that its suppliers could guarantee it enough jet fuel only through most of May. The airline said fuel could be in short supply if ships laden with energy did not soon begin passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway on Iran’s southern coast.
“If the Iran war finishes soon, then supply will not be disrupted,” the airline said in a statement. “If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June, then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.”
Iran has effectively blocked most shipments of crude oil, jet fuel and other goods through the strait since the start of the war. After peace talks failed over the weekend, the United States imposed its own blockade to cut off Iranian exports through the strait. Iran responded on Wednesday by threatening to disrupt trade across the region.
Europe is heavily reliant on imported jet fuel because many of its oil refineries have shut down in recent decades. Britain, the largest consumer of jet fuel in Europe, has just four refineries, down from 18 in the 1970s, according to a parliamentary report published in December.
Europe is by far the biggest consumer of jet fuel shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments through the strait account for about 41 percent of all European jet fuel imports and about 36 percent of all African jet fuel imports, according to Macquarie Group, an Australian financial services firm.
As of Tuesday, global prices of jet fuel were about 80 percent higher than before the war, according to the Platts Jet Fuel Price Index, which is published by S&P Global Energy Platts. Airlines around the world have responded by raising ticket prices and cutting flights that are not very profitable.
The Airports Council International Europe, a trade group, warned European Union officials last week that a “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality.”
In recent weeks, Europe has been relying on jet fuel shipments that left exporting countries before the war, but those deliveries have largely wound down, oil analysts said.
“The canary in the coal mine will be if European airlines start to cut schedules for the coming months,” said Benedict George, an editor at Argus Media, a news and data service focused on commodities.
But shortages could be avoided if the war ends soon or if the United States and Iran agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
If the war continues, airlines in wealthier countries will probably fare better because their customers will be able to pay more for limited jet fuel supplies than airline customers in poorer countries, many of them in Asia and Africa. Vietnam, for example, has struggled to buy enough jet fuel in recent weeks.
Higher prices could also prompt refiners to find ways to produce more jet fuel by making less of other fuels like diesel. But such changes would inflict more pain on other industries, like trucking, that are also hurting from high fuel prices.
“I think the chance of a disorderly loss of supply is lower than some are fearing,” said Richard Joswick, the global head of near-term oil analysis for S&P Global Energy. “But I think the prices will go up. That will lead to less consumption. People will fly less. Airlines will cut some of their schedules back.”
Airlines for Europe, a trade group, has been asking policymakers for help, including enhanced monitoring of jet fuel supplies, the lifting of certain environmental requirements and the dropping of some taxes.
“These are temporary measures to weather us through the current situation, plus more long-term planning to be prepared for the future,” Ourania Georgoutsakou, the group’s managing director, said in a statement.
So far, European airlines have managed the disruption without having to make sweeping changes. Many have long-term contracts that lock in fuel prices, and they have cut relatively few flights compared with airlines in Asia. But that could change in the coming weeks, said Abhishek Kumar, a Dubai-based oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, a data firm.
“If this goes on for another two, three weeks, everyone will feel the pain,” he said.
Summer is the busiest and most profitable season for airlines. As a result, demand for jet fuel will surely rise in the weeks ahead.
“As European markets approach the peak demand season, the loss of Middle East imports presents a severe logistical challenge,” the International Energy Agency said in a report published on Tuesday.
If Europe can’t replace more than half of the jet fuel supply it normally gets from the Middle East, shortages could materialize as soon as June, the energy agency said. If the continent can replace up to 75 percent of the missing Persian Gulf supply, disruptions would be delayed into August.
The United States is far more self-reliant, said Amanda Hilow, a jet fuel expert at Argus Media. The country produces most of its own jet fuel, though it imports some from South Korea for use on the West Coast, along with small volumes from other countries.
American refineries have increased jet fuel exports in recent weeks, much of them destined for Europe. But even if Europe received every drop of that fuel, it would replace only about half of the lost Persian Gulf supply, according to the International Energy Agency.
Aaron Krolik contributed reporting.
Niraj Chokshi is a Times reporter who writes about aviation, rail and other transportation industries.
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