Senate Republicans are facing a full-blown crisis as President Donald Trump endangers their once thought near-invincible majority in 2026, Semafor’s Dave Weigel told MS NOW on Monday.
This comes as the Cook Political Report moves four Senate races toward Democrats, all of them in states that backed Trump in 2024.
“Texas … didn’t move into this analysis. Maine is in the same place,” said Weigel. “But we talk about [Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer. His recruitment of Janet Mills in Maine was, one, a coup for Schumer. She did not want to do it. She is doing it. But Democrats are are fairly, I’d say, every week more comfortable than if they end up with Graham Platner, if it turns out he’s able to survive the negative coverage of his race, that he can beat Susan Collins.”
An important factor, said Weigel, is “that state has been actually shifting, even though Trump is competitive, when he runs, in the second district, that shade has been shifting towards Democrats. Texas is not shifting, but same thing — Republicans unleashed everything they had on on Talarico in the spirit of a couple of weeks, but they have not been able to put the Senate race to bed.”
“And how involved is the president in this?” said Weigel. “This is another question hovering over a lot of races. You could look even at the Virginia referendum next week, Republicans are being outspent when they don’t have a lack of money. The president has raised $300 million for a super PAC. That’s not really doing much. Republicans have made ad reservations toward the end of the year. But where is the air cover they need for these candidates to change the storyline? Where is the evidence that going after Democrats is sticking?”
“Overall, I’d say two things to close,” said Weigel. “That the overall picture is a little bit worse for Republicans every month. And unlike prior years, where some candidates, think in 2022, not every Democrat said, I support Joe Biden, everything he does, they were allowed to get some separation from Joe Biden, criticized this policy, that policy, say they hope he didn’t run for another term, etc. Republicans are not allowed to do that.”
“This is the first second-term midterm I’ve seen where … one party’s candidates are nailed to the president and unable to say they disagree with him, with the minor exception of Susan Collins,” he added. “And so every race, not like every state is moving in the same speed or every state is competitive for Democrats. But in every race, Democrats are confident. If Trump is less popular, Republicans are tied to him and they cannot break without damage to themselves.”
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