Iraqis are choosing a new Parliament on Tuesday in an election being closely watched by Washington, which has been pressing the government to curb the influence of neighboring Iran.
For average Iraqis, the focus is on maintaining the country’s hard-won stability and economic growth after nearly two decades of U.S. occupation, sectarian war and jihadist insurgency. But the election also has serious geopolitical consequences.
The Trump administration has been adamant that the next government take up the daunting task of disarming Iraq’s array of powerful Iran-backed militias.
Though the stakes are high, public confidence in Iraq’s democratic process is low. Some polls indicate this election could see the lowest voter turnout in Iraq’s 20-year-old democracy.
“Many of my friends and relatives, even people with higher degrees, have just lost faith in voting,” said Kawthar Jaber, a retired engineer, as she left her local polling center in Baghdad. “But I think we have to keep trying, keep hoping. If I don’t like this or that group — I have to make my voice heard.”
Here’s what to know about Iraq’s election.
What’s at stake?
Since a U.S.-led invasion ousted the dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, parties from the Shiite Muslim majority have dominated Iraq’s government and the country has been caught in a tug of war between the United States and Iran, the region’s Shiite power.
Both Washington and Tehran want influence over the next Iraqi government.
The big question is what the next government will do about Iran-backed militias that operate outside government control. Some have gotten rich off their growing power in Iraqi politics. Five of Iraq’s 22 ministries are controlled by politicians linked to militias. Nearly every militia has candidates competing in this election.
Iraq’s current prime minister, Mohammed al-Sudani, pitches himself as a leader able to strike the right balance between Tehran and Washington.
Who is expected to win?
There are 7,743 candidates from 114 different lists vying for 329 parliamentary seats — much higher than previous elections.
Once the new Parliament is elected, it will vote in a new speaker. The speaker appoints a president of the republic, subject to the support of two-thirds of the legislature. The new president can appoint a prime minister with support from a simple majority of lawmakers.
The alliance of parties headed by Prime Minister al-Sudani is expected to win the most seats, with many Iraqis crediting him for a construction boom and political stability in recent years.
But he may struggle to lead the next government.
Mr. al-Sudani will need to cobble together a governing coalition with support from other parties, but he has angered some former political allies who helped bring him to power, according to political analysts.
The most powerful Shiite alliance of parties backed him for prime minister in 2022 on the conditions that he would not run again or form his own party. He has done both.
Many of these groups worry he has consolidated too much power, according to observers.
Are these elections free and fair?
Iraq is not an authoritarian state where people are compelled to vote in droves for a dictatorial leader. But ministries hold critical influence over the oil-rich state’s lucrative business concessions — the true prize in any government formation.
Vote-buying has skyrocketed in this election, according to many Iraqi politicians.
The mood around Iraq’s democratic process has been so sour that one of the most powerful political leaders, the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, called on his followers to boycott the vote — or to take any bribes offered, and then spoil their ballots.
By midday Tuesday, Iraq’s electoral commission announced a participation rate of 23.9 percent, but political analysts say this number obscures the picture. The commission tallies the percentage of registered voters, not eligible voters.
Some Iraqis said they chose not to register to vote at all.
“Of course I’m not voting,” Ahmed Bdeiri, a retired state employee in Baghdad, said. “Elections here are meaningless. The names and the parties may be different, but the people behind them are all still the same.”
When will the outcome be known?
Polling centers close at 6 p.m. local time and election officials say the initial results of electronic voting will be available within an hour. But there will not be an official count until at least next Tuesday.
After that comes months of political horse trading to form a government. After the previous elections, it took about six months of negotiations for a prime minister to emerge.
How does sectarianism affect the vote?
Iraq’s election campaigns are less issue-based and more determined by sectarian loyalties. Experts see this as an unfortunate legacy of an informal system developed under U.S. occupation, which doles out top posts along ethnic and sectarian lines.
The Parliament speaker is always from the Sunni Arab minority. The president is from the ethnic Kurdish minority. The prime minister comes from the Shiite Arab majority.
The system aimed to ensure demographic representation but has hardened into patronage networks. Parties and candidates gain support by promising to ensure services or investments for their sect or ethnic group.
This has disillusioned many Iraqis.
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