Mavens of the local real estate scene gathered in Miami on Wednesday with a gleam in their eyes. The night before, voters had cast ballots in an election that some brokers and developers speculated could fuel demand for South Florida property.
The Miami mayoral election? Nope. The one 1,300 miles north, in New York City.
“That seems to be all that people are talking about this morning,” said Stuart Elliott, the editor in chief and chief executive officer of The Real Deal, a national real estate publication, which hosted the forum on Wednesday.
From the moment that Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary for New York City mayor in June, real estate circles from Miami to Palm Beach have been aflutter. Would the election of a democratic socialist drive more wealthy New Yorkers south?
South Florida has long been a mecca for Latin Americans fleeing left-leaning governments in their home countries. And a few years ago, the state’s relative lack of pandemic restrictions drew new residents, including many from New York, who registered to vote as Republicans and helped shift the state to the political right.
Florida’s Republican politicians, starting with Gov. Ron DeSantis, have been keen to stoke the chatter about a New York exodus. Mr. DeSantis has spent months crowing that Mr. Mamdani would be the “realtor of the year” in Palm Beach, driving up mansion prices as New Yorkers wary of his progressive policies voted with their feet.
By Wednesday morning, Mr. DeSantis had posted a survey on X asking if Florida’s response to Mr. Mamdani’s election should be “Build a FL border wall,” “Tariff all transplants,” or “Recruit new transplants.”
At the Miami real estate forum, attendees mingled amid expo booths that showed off luxury condo towers, top-of-the-line kitchen appliances and investment opportunities in Panama and Puerto Rico. “I don’t think New York’s over,” one man in a suit could be overheard telling another in the V.I.P. room, before adding that he worried about antisemitism in the city.
Panelists were quick to throw shade on Mr. Mamdani. One of them, Kevin Maloney, the founder and chief executive officer of Property Markets Group, a developer, said he contributed to Mr. Mamdani’s campaign not because he supported his policies, but because he might be good for business.
“I was a big fan of Bill de Blasio because I was pretty sure he was going to do a certain amount of damage to the city, and in that respect, he was a great mayor,” Mr. Maloney said from stage. “Mamdani, I think, is probably going to end the city. Being an entrepreneur, I think that in five years we’ll go and pick up all the pieces at a very low price point.”
Mr. Mamdani’s campaign was not immediately available for comment.
Ian Bruce Eichner, the chairman and chief executive of The Continuum Company, another developer, said from the stage that he was “not an optimist” about New York under Mr. Mamdani. But he cautioned that Miami was running into a New York-like problem, with its lack of housing for working people.
Florida is still growing overall, but South Florida, which is especially expensive, has been losing residents. A recent survey by the Business and Economic Polling Initiative at Florida Atlantic University found that a quarter of respondents were “seriously considering” moving elsewhere because of the high cost of living.
South Florida’s demographic picture has been complicated by other factors, too.
While Latin Americans and other immigrants are still the region’s top real estate customers, they are struggling more often now to obtain U.S. visas, said Carlos Rosso, the founder of Rosso Development.
Nikki Fried, the chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, said she did not believe New Yorkers were preparing to arrive en masse.
“It’s an emotional reaction,” she told reporters on Wednesday. “I think everyone needs to take a deep breath. I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
Try telling that to the crowd at the real estate forum.
“Probably 80 percent of the brokers woke up this morning and had a shot of vodka,” Sam Nazarian, a Miami hospitality entrepreneur, said in the opening session. After all, they’re going to be busy, he said with an expletive.
Patricia Mazzei is the lead reporter for The Times in Miami, covering Florida and Puerto Rico.
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