One year ago, Democrats woke up in the political wilderness after the 2024 election.
Donald Trump had won the popular vote in his successful bid to return to Washington, fracturing the Democratic coalition and handing Republicans full control of Congress.
Today, thanks to victories in New Jersey and Virginia, a New York City mayor’s race, and candidates who focused on the state of the economy, the cost of living and backlash to Trump, the party may have the outlines of roadmap back to power in next year’s midterm elections.
In Virginia, where former Democratic congresswoman Abigail Spanberger defeated GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and helped pull Democrats to victory in all three statewide races, nearly half of voters said the economy was the most important issue in the commonwealth, according to exit polls.
Even as nearly 6 in 10 Virginia voters said Virginia’s economy is “excellent” or “good,” over 8 in 10 voters said they were “holding steady” or “falling behind” financially, with a majority of those voters supporting Spanberger — who campaigned around affordability and against Trump’s economic policies and cuts to the federal workforce that have impacted Virginia’s economy and workers in the Washington, D.C., area.
In New Jersey, where Rep. Mikie Sherrill defeated GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli by a similar margin, the economy and taxes were top issues for voters, according to exit polls. Additionally, about half of Garden State voters strongly disapproved of Trump’s performance in office, a rebuke to Republicans who were encouraged by New Jersey’s drift to the right last year.
And in New York City, where State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral race on a campaign of freezing rent for some New Yorkers, making busses free and providing universal child care to New Yorkers, more than half of voters said the cost of living was the most important issue facing New York, according to ABC News exit polls.
Two-thirds of those voters voted for the 34-year-old self-described democratic socialist over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa.
The results come as Republicans have lost their edge on the issue of the economy: According to a new NBC poll this week, 63 percent of Americans believe the Trump administration has fallen short of expectations on the economy.
The same poll found that voters view the Democratic and Republicans parties equally on the issue of handling the economy, down from the GOP’s 20-point lead in 2023, and the lowest party advantage for the GOP the issue in seven years.
To be clear, Democrats will need more than a unified message around affordability and against the Trump administration to maintain momentum next year: Virginia, New Jersey and New York are blue states that do not necessarily reflect the states and House districts that make up the battlefields for control of the House and Senate.
And while turnout was high in the states for an off-year election, no assumption about turnout and the composition of the electorate is safe, as Republicans learned Tuesday night.
The quality of next year’s candidates — their discipline and ability to communicate — will also play a role. So will Trump’s involvement — and investment — in the midterms that will more directly impact his future success in office than Tuesday night’s results.
And so will the country’s economic picture and how people perceive it: Any improvements could help Democrats and lift Trump’s popularity if his actions are seen as contributing to them.
Results will also matter — especially in New York City, where elements of Mamdani’s proposed agenda has polarized some communities as much as it energized a younger and more diverse coalition of New Yorkers.
It’s a reality the Democrats acknowledged on “Good Morning America” on Wednesday.
“We had the electoral success, and we need to have the success and governance,” Spanberger said.
“I’m looking forward to showing the power of an example here in New York City,” Mamdani said, “an example of what it means to not just diagnose the despair in working people’s lives as the cost-of-living crisis, but to deliver on it.”
They also recognized the debate inside the party about how to get there isn’t settled.
“Is there a fight going on over the future of the Democratic Party?” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos asked Sherrill on “Good Morning America.”
“I think the fight is going to be how to deliver for people,” she replied.
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