Donald Trump told Republican senators Wednesday morning that the government shutdown, now setting a record for length, was a “big factor” in the pummeling that the party took in the off-year elections the night before.
Almost everywhere where elections were held Tuesday, voters moved toward Democrats, even at surprising margins. Polls had showed a tight governor’s race in New Jersey, where Trump had pinned his hopes of Jack Ciattarelli to deliver in blow in a blue state, but in the end the race wasn’t even close, with Democrat Mikee Sherrill likely to win by a double-digit percentage.
To the senators, Trump tried to take solace that he wasn’t on the ballot as a factor in diminished GOP enthusiasm, but in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom presented Proposition 50 as akin to an up-or-down vote on the president, the measure was called just as polls closed, winning by a lopsided margin.
While the most immediate question out of the off-year races is whether they have any impact on the stalemate that has kept the government closed, party leaders, donors and presidential prospects are reading everything they can about the results and what they say about the midterms and even the 2028 elections. For Democrats, it’s a shot in the arm to activate long-dejected donor bases, particularly in Hollywood.
Here are five takeaways about what’s ahead:
A Blue Wave For 2026?
For the next 12 months, polling data will be endlessly scrutinized for whether Democrats are looking at something like 2018, when they flipped 40 GOP House seats and took back control of Congress.
Cook Political Report’s team wrote, “The results of all of Tuesday night’s election contests — combined with Democratic overperformance in special elections earlier this year by an average of 15 points — point to serious danger for the GOP going into the 2026 midterms. A blue wave is building; the only question now is whether it can be sustained for another twelve months.”
They also noted that results in Georgia, where Democrats won two Public Service Commission races, and in Pennsylvania, where they held their seats the Supreme Court, suggested that “the backlash to Trump and the GOP isn’t limited to blue-tinted states.”
Among Democrats, there also were notions that the the results showed that the loss of Latino voters in 2024 was only temporary, as pundits noted recovery in some districts. And there are hopes that some of the redistricting in Texas, based on a Latino shift, would end up backfiring on Republicans.
That said, GOP political strategist Mike Madrid cautioned about reading the wrong message out of the results. He wrote on X, “Prioritizing immigration for Latino voters is the biggest blind spot in American politics. No poll taken anywhere in the country in the past month has anything other than the economy as the top issue for Latinos. It’s the economy, stupid.”
Affordability Affirmation
Zohran Mamdani‘s stunning victory — from political unknown to leader of America’s largest city — was driven by a relentless focus on affordability, or the cost of living that just keeps rising.
As a Democratic socialist who started his speech Tuesday by quoting Eugene Debs, he likely will be giving heartburn to many a midterm-moderate, but he has perhaps redirected the party to its central issue going into next year. New governors-elect Sherrill and Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger did as well, proving that moderate candidates can succeed with a centrist message, but Mamdani likely will retain the spotlight given New York’s place as the center of the media universe.
What also helped was Trump, whose obsession with taking over and renovating the Kennedy Center and building a White House ballroom may not have been top of mind for voters, but it’s less time he has spent on what has been the core issue for the electorate. A Mar-a-Lago, a Great Gatsby-themed Halloween party in the final days of the campaign likely didn’t help.
None other than Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) weighed in with her take, as she has been critical of the GOP for not addressing rising healthcare costs, among other things.
“Politics is no different than business. Business 101: If you don’t deliver what you promise, then don’t expect return customers.”
The Media Message
Mamdani’s victory showed that caution when it comes to media strategy, which has beset so many Democratic candidates in the Trump era, is a bit futile.
An unknown when he entered the race, Mamdani made a heavy emphasis on trying to be everywhere, and repeating the same message over and over again. That extended to his campaign spots, some of which were tailored to the shows in which they aired. “New York, will you accept this rose?” Mamdani said during a spot that ran during ABC’s Golden Bachelor. It may have been just a bit cringe, but it got attention.
That’s why the midterms will likely have a heavy emphasis on candidate visits to podcasts and social media streaming shows, among other non-traditional outlets, in addition to the usual network and mainstream media stops.
That said, linear media attempts to reach viewers where they are, as the saying goes, had some curiosities on Tuesday evening. CNN’s Election Livecast, exclusive to its new streaming service, featured Harry Enten, Ben Shapiro and Charlamagne Tha God chatting on a living room set, with a backdrop of arcade games.
The atmosphere, though, seemed a big incongruous to the urgency of any election night, when the major question is, who’s winning?
Mamdani’s Stature
As Democrats focus on affordability, Republicans likely will zero in on Mamdani’s every move in an effort to cast him as the future of the left. And given the Manhattan-centric focus of much of the media, it won’t be that hard to draw coverage to any crisis.
It has already started, as the New York Post‘s Soviet-invoking front page shows, and with Donald Trump threatening to withhold federal funding for what he has already characterized as a city led by a “communist.”
Mamdani looked to take the fight directly to the president in his victory speech, telling the crowd, “Donald Trump, since I know you are watching, I have four words for you: Turn the volume up.”
Trump seemed to be watching, and wrote on Truth Social, “… AND SO IT BEGINS!”
Newsom’s Moment
Even before the overwhelming passage of Proposition 50, the spotlight has been on what it will mean for a Gavin Newsom 2028 presidential run.
Pundits noted that his championing of the ballot measure, which initially looked like a risky move, would position him atop the field of potential presidential contenders.
First, there are the midterms, and he’s likely to become a sought-after surrogate. He will need to tend to a handful of newly redrawn California districts to make sure they are actually flipped in Democrats’ favor. He’s also proven that he can raise huge sums of money, fast, as he drew on figures like Netflix’s Reed Hastings to put the measure over the finish line.
What’s unclear is whether there will be a bit more energy into the race to succeed Newsom. Hours before polls closed on Tuesday, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) announced that he would not run for governor, leaving a Democratic field that includes former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. There still seems to be room for a new entrant, with names like Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Tom Steyer floated.
Rick Caruso, still mulling a run for either L.A. mayor or governor, sought to show that he played a part. He posted on X, “CA was going to unfairly lose power in DC, which is why I was glad to play a part in helping get Prop 50 passed by reaching out to voters in LA. I hope we can now move past political process fights and fix the many problems in our nation, state, and city.”
The post “And So It Begins!”: Democrats’ Off-Year Election Wallop Sets Stage For 2026 And Beyond appeared first on Deadline.
