With the 2026 midterm elections now one year away, Republican and Democratic state legislators who have yet to redraw congressional maps in their favor have only a short window before candidate filing deadlines and the primary season end their opportunities.
Redrawing maps to squeeze out more safe seats before any votes are cast is not part of the ordinary run-up to an election. But when President Trump demanded that Republican-led states gerrymander their House maps to stave off Democratic control, he shattered decades of settled norms regarding how and when legislative lines are drawn.
The Texas legislature kicked things off. Missouri and North Carolina legislators followed suit. An already scheduled redrawing in Ohio just finished, potentially netting Republicans more seats, while a judge in Utah forced a redrawing there that could benefit Democrats.
And on Tuesday, voters in California approved a ballot measure that temporarily set aside an independent redistricting commission and instead redrew the maps by referendum. That potentially netted Democrats five House seats next year.
So which states are likely to be the next — and which ones are not?
HIGH PROBABILITY
Virginia —- Democrats now hold six of 11 seats in Congress. But two weeks ago, in a surprise, Democratic state legislators, nursing a razor-thin edge in both chambers, said that they would redraw the maps to potentially give their party two or three more House seats. Any new maps would require legislative approval, and then a statewide referendum, which could go before voters early next year. But after Tuesday’s Democratic romp, at least 11 seats in the House of Delegates flipped from red to blue, and the party will hold a huge majority in the state house, though the Democratic majority in the State Senate remains tight.
MEDIUM PROBABILITY
Maryland — Democrats now hold seven out of eight House seats. On Tuesday, Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, announced the formation of a new five-member redistricting commission “to make sure Maryland has fair and representative maps.” That commission, chaired by Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, is expected to come back with recommendations by the end of the year, though one of its members, State Senate President Bill Ferguson, has warned that any midcycle redistricting efforts could backfire against Democrats.
Indiana — Mr. Trump has relentlessly pressed Republican leaders to pad their 7-2 partisan advantage in their House delegation — with the purplish northwestern corner being the main target. Gov. Mike Braun, a Republican, has called for a special session, and top Republican leaders have announced that they will address the issue in early December. But they are hardly confident that they have the votes, especially as some Republican lawmakers express misgivings.
Florida — Florida’s congressional delegation has 20 Republicans and eight Democrats, thanks to a map that already favors Republicans. Republican legislative leaders would like to add two to four new seats, and have formed a redistricting committee, though no meetings have been scheduled, nor any maps introduced.
LOW PROBABILITY
Illinois — Democrats currently hold 14 of 17 Congressional seats, thanks to a map that is heavily tilted toward Democrats. Yet while Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat and possible presidential candidate in 2028, has been among the most vocal critics of Mr. Trump and Republican redistricting, Democratic leaders in the Springfield statehouse have shown little appetite. Some lawmakers worry, too, that any changes could water down Black political power.
Nebraska — Republicans occupy all three congressional seats. But Democrats have long coveted the Omaha-area seat held by Representative Don Bacon, a frequent Trump critic who is not seeking re-election. And with at least one Republican state legislator indicating that he opposes any redistricting efforts, there doesn’t appear to be much momentum.
New Hampshire — Democrats occupy both House seats. Republicans, though, have a trifecta in state government — the governor’s office and both legislative chambers. Still, Gov. Kelly Ayotte is opposed to any redistricting efforts that could make at least one of those House districts more competitive.
NOT HAPPENING … FOR NOW
Kansas — Republicans, who hold three of four House seats, wanted to oust Representative Sharice Davids, who represents Kansas City, Kansas, and its suburbs. And even though the state is led by Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, the Senate president had said the Senate had gathered enough signatures to force a special session on redistricting. Then on Tuesday, Republicans dropped the push.
Colorado — Democrats and Republicans have four Congressional seats each in this increasingly blue state. But the state has implemented redistricting reforms intended to prevent political gerrymandering. And though Attorney General Phil Weiser, a Democrat who is running for governor next year, supports a constitutional amendment that would permit the state to redraw its congressional maps, he basically stands alone.
Washington — Democrats hold eight of 10 House seats. But Gov. Bob Ferguson and leading Democrats say changing the maps would be all but impossible and therefore a nonstarter. Any redistricting changes would require a change to the state constitution, and a two-thirds vote in the legislature, which the Democrats do not have.
Oregon — Democrats occupy five of six seats in the House. But as with Washington and Colorado, there are constitutional restrictions regarding mid-decade, partisan gerrymandering. Plus, previous redistricting efforts, following the decennial census, haven’t necessarily gone according to the Democrats’ plan.
SEE YOU IN COURT
New York — Democrats hold 19 out of 26 House seats. And though Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, has criticized Republican redistricting efforts elsewhere, the state constitution inhibits Democrats eager to redraw the map before he 2026 elections. Still, a leading liberal law firm last month filed a lawsuit challenging a Republican district in Staten Island as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.
Wisconsin — Republicans occupy six of the state’s eight congressional districts, despite a near 50-50 partisan split among Wisconsin voters. Last year, with the election of a liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, gerrymandered state legislative maps were tossed in favor of more competitive districts. Now, two new lawsuits challenging the state’s House districts are pending. One argues that the House maps are anti-competitive, as opposed to partisan, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan law and policy institute.
Nick Corasaniti contributed reporting
David W. Chen is a Times reporter focused on state legislatures, state level policymaking and the political forces behind them.
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