Predicting the timing of election race calls is a tricky business.
It took several days for Joseph R. Biden Jr. to be declared the winner in 2020. But last year? The race was called for Donald J. Trump early Wednesday morning after the Tuesday elections.
But it’s an off year, without a top-of-the-ticket race pulling large numbers of voters to the polls. Still, the speed with which races are called is largely dependent on how tight a race is. Polling suggests that some of Tuesday’s marquee contests are not particularly close.
Voting procedures and recent history offer some additional guideposts. Here’s what we know:
Virginia
Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
Former Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, has had a consistent lead in the state’s governor’s race. Combined with the fact that polls close earlier in Virginia than in other major contests on Tuesday, a race call for governor could be the first major result on election night, if her lead holds.
Additionally, the state tallies ballots relatively quickly, aided by a requirement that counties prepare absentee ballots for processing ahead of Election Day. Still, it could take a few hours.
When Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, narrowly won the governor’s race four years ago, the call came about 12:30 a.m.
There are other races in the state on Tuesday — including for lieutenant governor, attorney general and all seats in the House of Delegates. And Virginia counts mail ballots that are received as late as Friday with a postmark by Election Day, so any particularly tight races that hinge on those ballots could be in for a wait.
New Jersey
Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
The governor’s race in New Jersey has been competitive this year, as it was four years ago. Then, when Gov. Philip D. Murphy narrowly won re-election, the race was not called until almost a full day after polls closed.
In New Jersey, mail ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received by Nov. 10. Counties can tally the votes on different timetables. The 2021 result may have been slowed by the adjustment to processing large numbers of mail ballots, a shift spurred on by the pandemic.
So should residents expect a bit of a wait for a winner to be called? If it’s close, yes — but hopefully not as long of a wait as in 2021.
New York City
Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
In deep-blue New York, there has not been a close general election for mayor in 16 years, leading to a run of race calls that seemed to come almost as soon as polls closed.
And while this year’s race is unusual — one of the most prominent Democrats in New York politics, former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, is running as an independent to challenge the Democratic nominee, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani — a race call could still come relatively quickly. Mr. Mamdani has displayed a durable lead in opinion surveys.
California
Polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern time.
California is well known for its extended vote tabulation period.
In the state, which has a ballot proposal this year on whether to allow Democrats to redraw the state’s congressional map to favor their party, every registered, active voter is sent a mail ballot.
Processing and verifying mail ballots can be laborious. If the vote on the measure is close, the wait for a race call could be measured in days rather than hours. But polls indicate that it could pass by a healthy margin, and Democrats are feeling unusually confident.
More prominent contests
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Boston (mayoral race): Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
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Detroit (mayoral race): Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
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Maine (ballot measures on voting and gun rights): Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
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Minneapolis (mayoral race): Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Central).
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Pennsylvania (State Supreme Court retention elections): Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
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Texas (ballot measures): Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. Central) in most of the state.
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