In the years since Tim Kaine and Mark Warner followed a path from the Virginia governor’s office to the Senate, posts that both Democrats still hold, the record for the state’s more recent leaders has been scattered.
Bob McDonnell was indicted on corruption charges within a month of leaving office, in 2014. Terry McAuliffe thought about running for president but ultimately did not, then he lost his 2021 bid to reclaim his old job as governor. And Ralph Northam has largely receded from politics after his term was marked by a blackface scandal in 2019.
But Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who like all Virginia governors is prohibited by state law from seeking a second consecutive term, appears to have a stronger political future.
Mr. Youngkin, 58, will leave office in January with relatively high approval ratings, a personal net worth sufficient to seed a future campaign and the evident ambition to extend his political career.
He has already signaled his interest in a national campaign, with July visits to Iowa and South Carolina where he was a featured speaker at local Republican Party fund-raising dinners.
“It appears to me that he’s looking at the presidency in 2028,” said former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who left office in 2002, then ran unsuccessfully for the Senate and twice for president. “He visited a couple of primary states. You don’t do that unless you’re running and I know that because I ran.”
Mr. Youngkin, a wealthy financier who is a favorite of Republican donors, remains a curious fit within the modern Republican Party. He held President Trump at arm’s length during his winning 2021 campaign and has never been fully embraced by Mr. Trump’s base.
He would begin a future race for any office with significant financial resources, though it is unclear how he would fare against candidates with more direct links to Mr. Trump or blessings from him.
Mr. Youngkin has said little about what he would like to do after he is out of office. But should he choose to stay in politics, Virginia officials from both parties indicated that his best options are to run for president, challenge Mr. Warner for the Senate next year or bide his time and run for governor again in 2029.
If he bides his time, he does so with the future political dynamics in the state unclear, given that its voters have, in all but one election since the 1970s, chosen a governor from the party opposite of the president.
Mr. Youngkin’s “sole focus” has been on helping Republicans win Tuesday’s elections in Virginia and he has not yet considered his future, said Justin Discigil, Mr. Youngkin’s spokesman.
“Governor Youngkin’s common-sense conservative leadership has delivered real results for Virginians and he’s going to continue delivering results until his term ends,” Mr. Discigil said.
As for the state’s senators, Mr. Warner, 70, is running for a fourth term next year — he would be 77 if he wins and runs again in 2032. Mr. Kaine, who won a third Senate term last year, is 67 years old and would be 72 if he runs again in 2030.
Another former Virginia governor who went on to the Senate, George Allen, a Republican, said there were few signs Mr. Youngkin was preparing to challenge Mr. Warner next year. But he said the governor’s wealth — he self-funded his winning 2021 campaign — and lack of an obvious Republican front-runner means that he could wait until early next year to decide.
“If you can write yourself a check for tens of millions of dollars, then you can decide on your own timeline,” Mr. Allen said.
Reid J. Epstein covers campaigns and elections from Washington. Before joining The Times in 2019, he worked at The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Newsday and The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
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