(The Hill) – Election Day dawns on Tuesday with four contests commanding the most national attention.
In New York City, 34-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani hopes to become mayor.
Mamdani leads the polls by a comfortable margin against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, now running as an independent. Republican Curtis Sliwa is a distant third.
Two races for governor are also in the spotlight.
In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) is leading by a narrow margin against former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R). In Virginia, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) holds a wider advantage over the state Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
In both of those states, the incumbent governors — Democrat Phil Murphy in New Jersey and Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia — are term-limited out of office.
Meanwhile, voters in California will go to the polls to vote on Proposition 50. Basically, that’s a measure to redraw the Golden State’s congressional maps to Democrats’ advantage.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and others in his party have cast the measure as a response to an earlier redistricting in Republican-dominated Texas which has likely given the GOP five extra House seats.
Here are the big things to watch on Tuesday.
Will Mamdani win — and by how much?
Mamdani’s rise has been one of the most dramatic political stories of the year.
The hitherto-obscure state assemblyman caused a political earthquake by vanquishing Cuomo, one of the most famous names in New York politics, in the Democratic primary.
Mamdani’s campaign has revolved around a single purpose — to make the city more affordable.
His relatability and use of social media have won plaudits, especially among younger voters. He has exploited Cuomo’s numerous vulnerabilities — most infamously, the multiple allegations of sexually inappropriate behavior, which the former governor denies.
Anger among the Democratic grassroots about Israel’s conduct in Gaza — and U.S. support for it — has also helped Mamdani, who is now on the brink of becoming the city’s first Muslim mayor.
As of Monday evening, Mamdani was leading Cuomo in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average by almost 11 points. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa was a distant third in the overwhelmingly Democratic city.
There was some nervousness in the Mamdani camp in the first days of early voting, when it seemed the younger voters who favor him most were not showing up in the expected numbers. But that has changed in recent days, boosting the total number of early votes to more than 700,000.
The possibility of an upset victory for Cuomo can’t be entirely discounted. But otherwise, expect competing narratives late Tuesday and into Wednesday about what a Mamdani victory means.
If the assemblyman triumphs by a margin akin to the polling average, or greater, his supporters will see a vindication of the left-wing politics he practices, and they’ll insist he provides a model for progressive candidates elsewhere.
If Mamdani wins more narrowly — by about six points or less — the Democratic centrists who have been reluctant to embrace him will be in full voice, arguing the New York City race is a one-off rather than representative of any bigger picture.
Mamdani loyalists will counter by pointing out the odds — and the well-financed attacks — he overcame to win at all.
Could Ciattarelli thread the Trump needle to pull a New Jersey surprise?
Tuesday is not expected to provided much grounds for celebration for Republicans. In the three biggest electoral races, and on the California ballot measure, polls forecast Democrats will prevail.
Ciattarelli is the GOP’s best chance of springing a surprise.
The DDHQ polling average has Sherrill, a politically moderate former Navy helicopter pilot, leading him by only about four points.
Ciattarelli is well-known to Garden State voters, having run for governor in 2021 and in 2017. He has tried to strike a balance on the vexing question of President Trump.
Ciattarelli hasn’t backed away from Trump to a degree that would irk the president’s supporters. But the 63-year-old businessman’s persona is a far cry from full-on MAGA. He emphasizes a business-friendly approach and a concern with kitchen-table issues like affordability over the more invective-filled Trump style.
It may not be enough in a state where then-Vice President Harris defeated Trump by six points last November, but Ciattarelli is certainly in with a shot.
Will Jay Jones overcome his texting furor in Virginia?
Spanberger should win the governor’s race fairly comfortably in Virginia, helped along by strong distaste for Trump in the liberal northern suburbs near Washington.
The closer — and more controversy-filled — race is for attorney general.
Democratic nominee Jay Jones has spent the last month of the race in the eye of the storm.
In early October, conservative magazine National Review unearthed texts from 2022 in which Jones, a former state lawmaker at the time, suggested he would like to see the Republican Speaker of Virginia’s House of Delegates shot. The text exchange continued with Jones suggesting the Speaker, Todd Gilbert, and his wife were “breeding little fascists.”
The texts, naturally, caused instant uproar — and an especially intense one in a political environment shaken by the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk in September.
Key party colleagues, like Spanberger, condemned the texts but did not press for Jones to stand aside. Jones apologized profusely but stayed in.
According to the polls, the race between Jones and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares is close to a dead heat.
The latest surveys include one from The Hill and Emerson College that had Jones up three points, and one from Echelon Insights putting Miyares ahead by the same margin.
How much does a Prop 50 victory boost Newsom?
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has led the charge on Proposition 50, arguing that it is one battle in the wider war against the president.
“You have the power to stand up to Donald Trump,” Newsom told California voters in a closing TV ad that featured some of the biggest names in Democratic politics, including former President Obama, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Harris has also been vocal in backing the move in her native state.
The polls show the liberal push to pass the measure should succeed easily. The DDHQ average has the “yes” side leading by 20 points.
The margin is no surprise in a Democratic stronghold, but a big win on the measure could be another asset to Newsom as he moves towards a widely-expected 2028 presidential run.
The California governor has been confrontational with Trump in recent months, including mocking the president’s hyperbolic and self-praising tone on social media. Largely as a result, Newsom has vaulted to the top of some polls of Democratic presidential contenders.
That said, the passage of Prop 50 would give right-leaning voters cause to argue that liberal complaints about redistricting are hypocritical and that Newsom is escalating the arms race over electoral maps.
Does Trump weigh in?
Trump made his presence felt in his native New York in the run-up to Election Day.
First, he told Norah O’Donnell of CBS’s “60 Minutes” in an interview broadcast Sunday that he would pick Cuomo over Mamdani.
He followed up on social media early Monday evening, telling his supporters directly they “must vote” for Cuomo, and that a vote for the GOP’s Sliwa was in effect “a vote for Mamdani.”
That may be the kind of endorsement Cuomo could do without in a city where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans roughly two-to-one.
But expect Trump to have plenty to say if Mamdani prevails on Tuesday.
The president is clearly eager to paint the Democratic Party as marching in lockstep with the young democratic socialist.
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