Off-year elections on Tuesday provide the first big chance for voters across several states to make their voices heard this year — and shed early light on some major questions ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
How are voters responding to President Donald Trump’s second term? Can Republicans build on the president’s gains with working-class voters and people of color, and will they be able to keep Trump’s coalition engaged when he isn’t on the ballot?
As for Democrats, how are they regrouping after Trump’s 2024 victory? And how are they juggling the needs of their disaffected base with an attempt to win back voters who drifted away from them in last year’s presidential election?
Marquee gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey will provide some early answers for all those questions, while New York City’s mayoral race and California’s redistricting referendum will test the enthusiasm of Democratic voters. And other races will decide local issues that have bubbled into the national consciousness in the past — and probably will again.
Here is a look at the key races up for grabs across the country on Tuesday and the major dynamics shaping them:
Virginia governor
Former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are vying to become the commonwealth’s first female governor, with polls closing at 7 p.m. ET.
Democrats have leaned heavily into the rising cost of living and the government shutdown, arguing that Republicans aren’t standing up to Trump amid federal worker layoffs and tariffs that they argue are making life harder for Virginians. But Earle-Sears’ campaign has fought back largely by focusing on issues like school policies regarding transgender students, particularly their use of bathrooms and locker rooms.
She has also worked to closely tie herself to outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a popular Republican who is term-limited. And more recently, she’s attacked Spanberger over her refusal to call on Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones to resign after the release of violent texts he sent a few years ago.
That attorney general race has become the other high-profile race in Virginia, where incumbent Republican Jason Miyares has lambasted Jones over the texts and cast him as unfit for office. Miyares has Trump’s endorsement.
Also on the ballot in Virginia are the lieutenant governor’s race and control of the state House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow margin. Both the attorney general’s race and the state House majority are important pieces in the Democrats’ plan to redraw congressional maps in Virginia next year to boost the party in the fight for control of Congress.
New Jersey governor
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill emerged from a crowded Democratic primary to face off against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator who cruised to the Republican nomination again after losing the governor’s race in 2021 to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy by just 3 percentage points.
Unlike in Virginia, public polling has long shown a competitive race here, where polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Both campaigns have cast the race as a referendum on affordability in the high-tax state, which is also experiencing soaring electricity costs. Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli, but has not formally backed Earle-Sears in Virginia.
Sherrill argues that Ciattarelli’s support for Trump’s agenda will hurt the state, warning about cuts to programs like Medicaid and criticizing the president for slashing funding for a key infrastructure project connecting the state to New York City. But Ciattarelli argues that Democrats, who control the state government, are the ones to blame for rising prices and that Sherrill would be a continuation of Murphy’s policies.
The state House is also up for grabs, although Republicans would need a string of upsets to take back control.
New York City mayor
State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is the favorite to lead the nation’s largest city after his surprise victory in June’s Democratic primary. But he’s facing an aggressive challenge from former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is now running as a third-party candidate after losing the primary to Mamdani. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, has built his campaign around affordability, calling for freezing stabilized rents and making city buses and child care free, while also pledging to shift some city resources from police to a “Department of Community Safety” to focus on mental health and crisis response. Cuomo has positioned himself as a counter to Mamdani, promising to hire more police and arguing that Mamdani’s progressive policies will cost the city too much — or aren’t actually achievable.
The race has become deeply personal, with Mamdani saying he wants to turn the page on Cuomo’s scandal-marred politics of the past and Cuomo saying he wants to stop the progressive wing from destroying the Democratic Party.
There are other mayoral races on the ballot Tuesday, too, including in Minneapolis — where Mayor Jacob Frey is facing challenges from several other Democrats, including a self-described democratic socialist in state legislator Omar Fateh — as well as Detroit, Boston, New Orleans, Miami and Charlotte, North Carolina.
California’s redistricting ballot measure
California Democrats are asking the state’s voters to green light a new congressional map drawn by the party that would give it a chance to net up to five House seats in next year’s midterms — a big piece of the national redistricting battle.
The ballot measure, known as Prop 50, would authorize the new map from 2026 through 2030, while a “no” vote would keep in place the current congressional lines drawn by an independent commission after the 2020 census. This vote needs support from more than 50% of voters to pass. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time (11 p.m. ET).
Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democratic leaders have pushed the plan in response to the Trump-backed redistricting efforts by Republicans in Texas and other states. Trump’s party won a three-seat edge in the House in 2024 and is trying to protect that slim majority in 2026.
Democrats have linked their partisan gerrymandering attempts directly to a battle with Trump, arguing he’s trying to “rig” the midterms. Republicans and other opponents of the push say the redistricting move undercuts the will of the voters, who took redistricting power from the Legislature and gave it to an independent commission in order to take politics out of the process.
Texas 18th Congressional District special election
Eight months after the death of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner, voters in this deep-blue district will select a successor to serve out the rest of Turner’s term, which runs through the end of next year. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local).
The special election for the Houston-area district has drawn a handful of notable Democrats, including state Rep. Jolanda Jones, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilmember Amanda Edwards. Journalist and author Carmen Maria Montiel is the only major GOP candidate in the race.
The special election features all candidates on the same ballot regardless of party. If no candidate wins a majority outright on Tuesday, the top two move to a runoff.
Whoever wins, the prize will be fleeting. The district was completely withdrawn in Texas’ mid-decade redistricting, and elections next year will be run under completely different lines.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention elections
Three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices face retention elections this year, in which voters will decide whether to keep them in office or render the seats vacant. Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht, all Democrats, were elected in 2015, which shifted the balance of the state Supreme Court from a Republican majority to a 5-2 Democratic majority.
If Dougherty and Wecht are retained, they will serve another 10-year term on the court. If Donohue is retained, she will serve on the court until 2027, when she’ll face the mandatory retirement for justices age 75. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
If voters decide not to retain any or all three of the justices, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro can temporarily appoint justices to serve until 2027, when full judicial elections can take place — but that appointment process requires confirmation by two-thirds of the state Senate, which is controlled by Republicans. Shapiro has been rallying on behalf of the three justices, asking voters to retain them.
More important state ballot measures
Maine is voting on whether to approve of a new “red flag law” for firearms, which would allow people to petition a court to temporarily restrict firearm access to people they believe could pose a significant danger to themselves or others.
The state already has a modified version on the books, which allows police to make this request to a court, but the proposal would expand that ability to others, with a judge’s approval.
On another ballot measure, Maine voters will decide whether to make major changes to the state’s absentee ballot process, including shrinking the absentee voting period, limiting the number of ballot drop boxes and requiring voters to present valid ID before voting. Polls in Maine close at 8 p.m. ET.
Texas voters will weigh in on two statewide ballot propositions on state constitutional amendments Tuesday: one on whether to codify the fundamental right of parents to decide what’s best for their children, and another would declare that Texas voters must be U.S. citizens. The second measure is aimed in part at prohibiting localities from allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections. State polls fully close at 9 p.m. ET.
Colorado voters will decide on funding for a program that provides free breakfast and lunch to all public school students in the state. Polls there close at 9 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local).
Other races of note around the country
Among the other mayoral race’s noted above, Frey’s re-election run in Minneapolis has garnered significant attention, with Fateh running against him from the left in a crowded race.
Just a short drive away from the headline-grabbing New York mayoral race, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican, is seeking to keep his post this fall after aligning himself closely with the president and the MAGA movement.
Detroit and Miami will elect new mayors, while Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles is seeking re-election after the killing of a 23-year-old Ukrainian refugee sparked a national outcry.
Two special state Senate elections in Minnesota will determine partisan control of the body.
Swing-state Pennsylvania is home to other key elections besides the state Supreme Court retention races. Municipal races in Pittsburgh and suburban Philadelphia, among other places, could send early indicators ahead of the 2026 elections there.
And there are some particularly notable names on the ballot on Tuesday, too.
Former New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey is seeking a political comeback by running for mayor of Jersey City, while Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who prosecuted Trump, is seeking re-election.
And in Cincinnati, Mayor Aftab Pureval is favored to win re-election, running against Republican Cory Bowman, who is Vice President JD Vance’s half-brother.
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