Latinos make up about 40% of the California population — the largest percentage of any ethnic group in the state. And with such great presence comes great political power.
So as California decides on how to approach the question of Proposition 50, which would redraw California’s congressional districts to favor Democrats, Latinos will play a pivotal role in how the vote leans.
A September poll conducted by the Latino Community Foundation and the Latinx-owned research firm BSP Research found that 83% of California Latinos planned on voting in this year’s special election. When it came to Proposition 50, 46% said they’d vote yes to a new map and 29% didn’t know how they’d vote on it.
A recent study conducted by the San Francisco polling and strategic consultation firm Tulchin Research, in conjunction with the social impact firm Tzunu Strategies, found that Latino voters are slightly in favor of the redistricting proposition.
In the survey, 51% of Latino voters said they would vote “yes,” including 36% who stated they’d definitely vote in favor of the proposition and the remaining 15% saying they’d “probably” vote in favor of it.
On the other side of the spectrum, 31% of the polled voters stated that they would vote “no” on 50, with 24% “definitely” voting against it and 7% “probably” checking off “no.”
A critically contingent 18% of Latino voters remained undecided on how they would vote in the Nov. 4 election.
As with other demographics in the Golden State, Latinos are divided by party lines on the topic of Proposition 50. Latino Democrats overwhelmingly said they’ll vote in favor of it at 62% and 19% remaining undecided. Latino Republicans were likely to vote against at 56% and 18% were undecided.
Latino men were split on how to vote, with 45% leaning “yes,” 41% leaning “no” and 14% undecided. Latinas were more likely to vote “yes” at 55% while 22% remained undecided.
Younger Latinos ages 18 to 39 overall supported Prop. 50 at 53%, along with 16% undecided and 31% against the proposition. Latinos over the age of 65 had similar support rates as their younger counterparts at 54%, with 24% undecided and 23% looking to vote “no.”
The most divided age group was Latinos ages 40 to 64, who are 46% in favor of 50, 36% against it and 18% undecided.
Community organizers and politicians alike are vying for Latino votes until the last possible moments leading up to Tuesday’s election.
We Are California, a progressive coalition driving civic engagement, is looking to reel in that voting bloc and others with a series of community block parties called Can’t Stop CA — which will take place across California before polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday.
On Monday, it is teaming up with Boyle Heights-based nonprofit InnerCity Struggle to drum up engagement with a “perreo to the polls” parade and celebration.
Last Tuesday, Voto Latino and United Farm Workers launched a Spanish-language radio ad campaign of their own urging voters in California to vote yes; the 30-second sound bite aired on Radio Campesina and is intended to reach Latino voters across the Central Valley.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris and a slew of other national and California Democrats on Saturday rallied supporters to stay fired up in seeking passage of a ballot measure to redraw the state’s congressional districts ahead of the midterm elections.
On the other side of Proposition 50, a Spanish-language YouTube ad released in September by Protect Voters First urged voters to vote “no,” labeling the measure an “abuse of power.”
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