Anxious Democrats are hauling out their biggest political star to try to prevent what would be a devastating loss in blue state New Jersey, where former President Barack Obama is stumping Saturday for gubernatorial candidate Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
Obama was set to rally with Sherrill, 53, in Newark in an 11th hour bid to boost turnout in her race against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, 63.
Obama’s appearance comes after a new shock poll by Atlas Intel Saturday showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by less than a single point, 50.2% to 49.3% , less than the margin of error.
Motivating minority Democrats is key to Sherrill’s survival. Newark’s population is nearly 50 percent black and more than a third Hispanic. She leads Ciattarelli 65% to 12% among black voters, and 63% to 18% among Hispanics, according to a Suffolk University poll released Thursday.
Obama had already attended a $1.5 million fundraiser for the four-term New Jersey House member, a US Naval Academy grad and retired Navy helicopter pilot.
Obama, 64, headlines the rally a year after he campaigned with former Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee in her bid against President Trump. She lost badly anyway.
There were no indications former President Biden would stump for Sherrill, who on July 9, 2024 called for him to drop out of the race for president. “The stakes are too high — and the threat is too real — to stay silent,” she said at the time.
Obama was the most popular living president according to Gallup back in February, with 59 percent approval. Biden was the least popular, at 39 percent.
Ciattarelli was set to hold his own event in Monmouth, a day after he told The Post that “The candidate has to go out and win the race. I know my opponent’s bringing in this person, that person. She could bring in the ghost of FDR. It’s not going to matter.”
An off-year election in a blue state while Republicans hold the White House might typically be the kind that wouldn’t give Democrats heartburn.
But Sherrill is clinging to a narrow lead of less than 3% in the Real Clear Politics polling average while seeking to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D), in a state Joe Biden carried by 16 percentage points in 2020. Former VP Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump there by just 52% to 46%.
Ciattarelli outperformed the polls four years ago, adding to Democratic anxiety. The Republican National Committee has been surging resources to the state.
She had a bit of good news in the breakdown of early voting, with Democrats holding an edge in the raw vote count, though by less than 2 percentage points.
Sherrill has been trying to run a more centrist campaign while leftists like socialist Zohran Mamdani attract international attention in neighboring New York.
If Sherrill does lose, it may be due to her flailing answer when asked a basic question about her priorities.
“If you could pass just one piece of legislation, what would it be?” asked her interviewer Marcia Kramer on CBS New York.
“Wow, I would like … that’s a really good question, because there are so many that are coming to mind right now,” she said, desperately stalling for time.
The answer was “disastrous,” New Jersey State Sen. Holly Schepisi (R), who represents Bergen County, told The Post.
She has also been dogged by revelations that she didn’t walk during her 1994 graduation from the US Naval Academy commencement. She claims she got penalized because she “didn’t turn in some of my classmates” in an infamous cheating scandal.
Ciattarelli, who lost a narrow 51-48 race to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, hammered his rival over the interview in his own adds.
He has the support of Trump, who may be doing him the biggest favor by staying out of New Jersey in the final days of the race. Trump flew to Mar-a-Lago from Washington, DC Friday after his return from Asia. He opted not to go to his Bedminister, New Jersey golf club, which he frequents during the summer months.
That decision makes sense to Schepisi.
“I think that it’s a very delicate balance where people who do currently support our president were not necessarily motivated four years ago to vote. I think this go-round they are motivated regardless of whether or not the president comes and stumps personally” she said.
“The harm in him doing so is potentially motivating a currently fairly unmotivated base of voters to come out as a protest vote,” she added.
“Enthusiasm is strongly on Jack’s side,” said Bill Palatucci, an RNC member from Jersey. He said he’s been working with the party’s “election integrity team”, which has recruited lawyers in every county.
Ciattarelli has faced his own challenge: how to motivate Trump’s base without alienating independents or reachable Democrats in a purple state.
Back in 2015, Ciattarelli said Trump was “not fit to be president.” On the campaign trail this time around, he gave Trump — who held a tele-rally for him last week — an “A” grade on his second term in office.
New Jersey and Virginia are the only states holding governor’s races Tuesday. Obama also planned an appearance in Norfolk with former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger (Va.), a former CIA officer, who is battling Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
The total campaign spending in the race is expected to top $200 million, with the two party committees kicking in a combined $34 million.
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