Corporate America says AI isn’t about cost-cutting, but jobs will go anyway, a Goldman Sachs banker survey finds

• The AI revolution could hit paychecks sooner than anyone expected, Goldman Sachs said.
• Companies are racing to use AI for productivity gains, not layoffs, at least for now.
• But customer support, admin, and IT jobs are first in line for job cuts.

Corporate America has touted artificial intelligence as the start of a new era of productivity, but Goldman Sachs’ latest report suggests job cuts are already on the horizon.

Goldman’s analysis is based on a survey of 105 Goldman bankers, who service clients across various industries. It offers a behind-the-scenes look at how major US companies are actually utilizing AI and what that means for their workforces.

The survey found that companies are primarily turning to AI to boost productivity and revenue — not to slash costs — with nearly half of banking clients using the technology to drive growth. This compares with just one in five deploying it primarily to cut expenses.

Meanwhile, only about one in 10 firms has reduced head count so far due to AI, though nearly a third of bankers covering technology, media, and telecom clients report early signs of job pressure.

Still, the bankers expect AI to start trimming payrolls soon. They forecast a 4% reduction in head count over the next year, followed by a deeper 11% cut within three years.

“The relatively fast increase in expected adoption and head count reductions over the next three years highlights that AI impacts on the US labor market could arrive sooner than expected,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, in a Thursday note.

Customer support is most at risk

About 55% of Goldman’s bankers expect clients to rely on hiring freezes or natural attrition as AI reshapes roles, while 26% anticipate layoffs or broader restructuring.

Goldman’s bankers also see the most significant potential for AI-driven reductions in head count in customer support, where 80% of respondents expect cuts as automation takes hold. Other positions at risk include those in administrative support, operations at 49%, and IT and engineering.

Goldman’s report lands amid a wave of recent layoffs that underscore how quickly workforce reductions are spreading beyond traditional cost-cutting drives.

Earlier this week, tech giant Amazon cut 14,000 jobs with CEO Andy Jassy saying the cuts were driven by cultural fit — not cost savings or AI.

Still, the timing highlights how technology is reshaping hiring across sectors.

“The relatively high current and expected adoption rates for US corporates and meaningful expected head count reductions support our long-standing view that AI is set to have a transformative impact on the labor market and economy,” they wrote.

‘Too early as a technology’

Goldman’s forecast for job losses reflects the rapid adoption of AI by companies.

Goldman’s bankers report that 37% of clients are already using AI for regular production — significantly above the Census Bureau’s recent survey, which showed a 9.9% adoption rate.

They expect the share of overall adoption to rise to 50% next year and 74% within three years, suggesting a rapid acceleration as AI tools become more embedded in day-to-day operations.

Yet many companies remain cautious. About 61% of Goldman’s bankers said clients view AI as “too early a technology” to deploy widely, and 47% said firms lack the in-house expertise to build the right tools.

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